Midweek surge, severe risk: What the weather tomorrow will bring for the Ohio Valley

Unseasonably warm air will blanket parts of the Ohio Valley midweek, pushing highs into the upper 60s and even 70 in spots. That warmth will be short-lived: a warm front and an approaching cold front will set the stage for widespread showers and a heightened severe-weather threat Thursday afternoon and evening. Timing is critical — late-day travel and evening plans could be affected.

How the next 48 hours unfold (times in Eastern Time)

Wednesday morning starts with spotty showers and damp commutes before rapid clearing lifts temperatures into the upper 60s by afternoon. In the Cincinnati area, rain is most likely before 9 a. m., followed by gradual clearing and a high near 68. Southwest winds around 10 to 13 mph with gusts up to 24 mph are expected. Overnight, clouds increase with a mild low around 51.

Indianapolis has already seen unusually warm readings for mid-February, with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and reaching 70 by midafternoon on Wednesday. Winds will be gusty out of the west-southwest, making the mild air feel even warmer.

Thursday brings the main impact window. A warm front will surge through the region and be followed by a cold front later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely after 4 p. m., and the severe window will focus on the late afternoon into the early evening. In portions of western Kentucky, southwestern Indiana and southern Illinois, the highest threat will fall between 1 and 7 p. m. ET Thursday. Expect the greatest hazards to be damaging wind gusts and a threat for a few tornadoes; small hail is possible too.

Precipitation amounts will vary by storm intensity. Routine rain totals are forecast in the tenths of an inch, but thunderstorms could drop a quarter to a half-inch or more locally. After the cold front passes on Friday, readings tumble back toward seasonal norms with highs in the 40s and gusty northwest winds.

What to watch and safety steps

With severe storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening, residents should prepare now. Key actions:

• Have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings, including a battery-backup NOAA weather radio or emergency alerts on a charged phone.
• Secure or move outdoor furniture and loose items that could become projectiles in strong winds.
• Plan for changing travel conditions: heavy rain and gusty winds can reduce visibility and impact high-profile vehicles.
• Identify a safe interior room or basement where household members can shelter quickly if a tornado warning is issued.

For Wednesday, morning showers may dampen the commute; give yourself extra time and watch for slick spots. For Thursday evening events, have a contingency plan — performances, youth sports and outdoor venues should consider earlier start times or indoor alternatives.

Short-term outlook through the weekend

Friday will feel noticeably cooler after the front moves through, with highs struggling into the 40s and a chilly Friday night low near 32 ET. Saturday recovers a bit with mostly sunny skies and a high near 49, followed by a mostly cloudy Saturday night low near 30. A more persistent cool air mass arrives Sunday, keeping highs near 38 and lows in the mid-20s. Monday and Tuesday next week are expected to remain on the cool side, with highs in the mid-30s to upper 30s.

In short: enjoy the mild interlude, but stay alert for a stormy Thursday that could include severe wind and isolated tornadoes during the late afternoon and early evening. Monitor local briefings and have a plan in place for quick shelter if conditions deteriorate.