irs tax refund surge expected as Trump touts 'One Big Beautiful Bill'
President Donald Trump has pushed expectations for larger tax refunds this filing season, saying some taxpayers could see more than 20% returned after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Early IRS figures and tax analysts show average refunds are already higher than a year ago, though experts warn gains will be uneven and certain credits still trigger mandatory holds.
What taxpayers should expect this filing season
Taxpayers generally must file their 2025 federal returns by April 15, 2026 (ET). Those who file electronically and choose direct deposit typically receive refunds fastest—most refunds are issued within about three weeks after a return is processed. Early-season IRS data through Feb. 6, 2026, shows the average refund for filers who have already been processed is higher than last year, with averages climbing nearly 11% at that point.
Officials have promoted the 2026 filing season as likely to produce historically large refunds because provisions in last year’s legislation affect 2025 returns filed this year. Forecasters have suggested the average filer could see significantly larger checks, though the biggest gains are expected to flow to higher-income households. Lower-earning Americans will also see benefits, but not typically the same magnitude as top earners.
Taxpayers claiming refundable credits should be aware of built-in delays. Federal law requires the IRS to hold refunds for returns that claim the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit until mid-February to allow verification of income and identity. Returns that include certain forms, such as the Injured Spouse Allocation, may also face processing holds. For most straight-forward returns filed electronically, refunds continue to be issued in a matter of weeks once processed.
Which provisions are driving bigger checks, and who wins
The recent tax legislation includes a mixture of permanent and temporary changes intended to broaden tax benefits for households and extend many cuts that were due to expire. Key measures cited as increasing refunds include the elimination of federal tax on certain tip income, the removal of tax on Social Security benefits for many seniors, exclusion of overtime pay from federal income tax in specified cases, and expanded deductions such as interest on car loans. Lawmakers framed the package as building on prior tax reductions while locking in relief for 2025 returns.
Despite broad-brush improvements in average refund size, distribution matters. Analysts point out that wealthier households, whose returns are more complex and file later in the season, tend to see larger dollar increases. Early filers skew younger and lower-income, which helps explain why the average refund tends to rise as the season progresses and more returns from higher-earning households are processed. Historically, the average refund starts smaller in late January, peaks in mid-February and then moderates through the end of filing season.
Practical steps for taxpayers remain simple: file early if possible, choose direct deposit for the fastest handling, and double-check claims for refundable credits to avoid processing delays. Taxpayers concerned about identity verification or unexpected holds should gather proof of income and documentation that supports any credits claimed.
Tax season also brings heightened scam activity. Taxpayers should be cautious about unsolicited calls, texts or emails asking for personal information and remember that refund timing is determined by the filing method and which credits are claimed—not by offers or messages promising to speed a payout.
Bottom line
Expectations for larger refunds this year are grounded in new tax law and early IRS processing data. While many taxpayers will see bigger returns, the gains will not be evenly distributed and some returns will face mandatory holds that delay refunds until mid-February. File carefully, choose electronic filing and direct deposit for the quickest result, and watch for official IRS updates as processing continues through April 15, 2026 (ET).
