irs tax refund outlook bright as One Big Beautiful Bill promises bigger payouts
Tax season is shaping up to deliver larger refunds for many Americans after last summer's sweeping tax legislation. Early filing data and public comments from senior officials suggest the combination of the new law's provisions and filing patterns could push average refunds higher than in recent years, though timing and distribution of gains will vary across households.
What changed this filing season
The tax changes enacted last year shifted rules that affect 2025 returns filed in 2026. Provisions cited by administration officials include exemptions on certain types of income such as tips and specific treatment of Social Security for seniors, expanded deductions tied to overtime and interest on vehicle loans, and extensions of other popular cuts that had been set to expire at the end of 2025. Those items are expected to lift refund amounts once returns are processed.
Early-season data show average refunds running higher than at the same point last year. As of February 6, 2026, the nationwide average refund for filers who have received a payment stood at $2, 290, an increase approaching 11 percent from last year's early figures. Filers should note that averages tend to climb as the season progresses because higher-income households, which often receive larger refunds, file later.
Who stands to gain the most — and who may see smaller bumps
Analyses by independent forecasters indicate the largest dollar gains are likely to flow to upper-income households within the top 10 percent, whose returns can capture more of the law's itemized and business-related benefits. Lower-earning taxpayers will generally see increases as well, but the magnitude is expected to be smaller on average.
Refund size is also shaped by credits and family circumstances. Refunds that include refundable credits designed for lower- and moderate-income workers, such as the earned income credit and the refundable portion of the child tax credit, can significantly change outcomes for eligible households. However, those very credits are also associated with a statutory delay that affects when funds are released.
Timing, holds and what filers should expect
Taxpayers who file electronically and opt for direct deposit should continue to see the fastest turnaround: most refunds are issued within about three weeks after a return is processed, with common estimates placing typical e-file timelines at fewer than 21 days. The filing season opened in late January and the traditional filing deadline for 2025 returns is April 15, 2026 (ET).
Not all refunds arrive quickly. Federal law requires the agency to hold refunds that claim the earned income credit or the additional child tax credit until mid-February. That hold gives the agency time to verify eligibility and identity and means some early filers who claim those credits will not receive funds until later in the month. Returns that include an injured spouse allocation or have other verification flags can also experience delays.
Taxpayers concerned about timing should verify their bank account and direct deposit information before submitting returns and monitor processing updates through available agency tools. Electronic filers generally receive status updates faster than paper filers; those filing on paper can expect much longer waits.
Officials urging cautious optimism note that while the law increases refund dollars for many, the gains are not uniform. The season is still unfolding: as more complex returns and credit claims are processed, aggregated refund figures are likely to fluctuate before the filing window closes in mid-April 2026 (ET).
