irs: What a federal shutdown could mean for your tax refund — and how to avoid delays

As tax season approaches, many Americans are watching two separate forces that could affect how quickly refunds arrive: new tax-law changes that may boost some returns and the fallout from a partial federal shutdown that can limit human review capacity. Automated systems remain active, but refunds that require manual verification face the biggest risk of delay.

How refunds are being processed during a shutdown

The Internal Revenue Service’s automated systems continue to accept and process electronically filed returns. For taxpayers who file electronically, choose direct deposit and have error-free returns, refunds typically move within the standard 21-day window after the return is accepted.

The sticking point is manual review. Federal law requires extra verification for certain refundable credits and other situations that cannot be fully automated. When those returns are flagged, they are pulled for human review. If staffing is reduced during a partial shutdown, those reviews can take longer than usual.

Examples that commonly trigger additional checks include claims for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), and filings that include an Injured Spouse Allocation on Form 8379. Federal rules may delay refunds tied to those credits until mid-February in some cases, even if the return was submitted earlier.

What taxpayers should monitor and concrete steps to reduce delays

Taxpayers should use the IRS “Where’s My Refund?” tool to track the status of federal refunds. The tool updates once a day and generally reflects status changes within 24 hours of e-file acceptance. If more than 21 days have passed since your return was accepted and there is no update, check the tracking tool before calling the IRS. If there’s still no movement after four to five weeks, it may be time to contact the agency directly.

To minimize the chance of delay, apply these practical steps:

• File electronically and elect direct deposit. These options are the fastest route for straightforward refunds.
• Double-check personal information. Ensure Social Security numbers, names, and dependent details match Social Security records to avoid identity verification holds.
• Be accurate with credits. If you claim EITC, ACTC or similar refundable credits, be prepared for additional verification. Keep documentation on hand to respond quickly if the IRS requests proof of income, residency, or family relationships.
• Avoid paper returns when possible. Paper filings take longer to process and are more vulnerable to postal delays and manual handling backlogs.
• Respond promptly to any IRS notices. Providing requested documents quickly can shorten a manual review timeline.

Policy changes and state refunds to keep in mind

Tax-law changes enacted last year are expected to boost some taxpayers’ refunds next filing season; political leaders have promoted estimates that some filers could see substantially larger returns. That promise of bigger refunds does not change processing procedures or the additional checks tied to refundable credits.

A partial federal shutdown affects federal staffing and could slow manual review queues, but it does not automatically halt automated processing. State tax agencies operate independently; for example, state-level refund tracking and processing are not directly affected by a federal shutdown and continue on their usual schedules.

For many households, a timely refund is a meaningful financial event. The best strategy is preventive: file electronically, opt for direct deposit, keep records organized, and monitor the federal refund tracker daily. If delays occur, patience combined with a quick, documented response to any verification request will help move your refund along once staff are available to complete reviews.