irs tax refund averages jump nearly 11% for early filers as season unfolds
Early filers are receiving larger refunds this tax season, IRS data through Feb. 6, 2026 ET shows. The average irs tax refund rose to $2, 290 — nearly 11% higher than the same point last year — driven in part by provisions in last summer's major tax package and the filing patterns of different income groups.
Numbers, timing and who benefits
As of Feb. 6, 2026 ET the IRS had processed roughly 22. 4 million returns, down from about 23. 6 million at the same stage a year earlier. The uptick in average refund size does not mean every household is seeing a windfall. Analysts expect the biggest gains to flow to higher-income households, with the top 10% of earners likely to see the largest increases in refund checks. Lower-earning taxpayers will see improvements too, but their average change is muted by factors like refundable-credit timing and filing behavior.
Forecasters linked the jump in refund averages to several provisions enacted in last year's sweeping tax measure, which extended and modified tax breaks affecting 2025 returns filed this year. Some projections suggested the average payment could increase by roughly $1, 000 per filer, though outcomes vary widely by income, deductions and refundable-credit claims.
Refund delays tied to refundable credits and filing choices
Refund timing remains uneven. Taxpayers who file electronically with direct deposit typically receive refunds in fewer than 21 days once returns are processed. But federal law requires the IRS to hold certain refunds until mid-February when returns claim the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), creating a predictable backlog for many lower- to moderate-income households.
The agency expected reported refund totals to rise in its Feb. 27, 2026 ET update after processing more returns that include refundable credits. Returns that involve additional forms, such as an Injured Spouse Allocation, or those flagged for identity or income verification will also see slower processing.
What to watch for the rest of filing season
Refund averages typically start lower, peak in mid-February and then ease through the end of tax season. That pattern is partly explained by who files early: lower-income taxpayers and simpler returns often arrive first, while wealthier households with more complex filings submit later, pushing the average refund higher as those returns are processed.
Tax season officially opened on Jan. 26, 2026 ET and most individual returns must be filed by April 15, 2026 ET. Weekly IRS data releases during filing season will continue to show shifts in both volume and average refund size. Observers caution that headline averages can obscure distributional effects: an increase in the mean refund does not translate to uniform gains across the population.
For taxpayers, the practical takeaways are straightforward: file electronically and choose direct deposit to speed receipt of refunds when eligible; be prepared for delays if claiming refundable credits; and watch weekly IRS data for updates on processing trends as the season progresses toward the April 15 deadline.
