The United States beat Paraguay 4-1 at SoFi Stadium on Friday night, and Folarin Balogun scored twice — once in the 31st minute and again in first-half stoppage time — a performance that immediately vaulted him into the Golden Boot betting picture.
Bookmakers reacted fast. Before the match, BetMGM listed 56 players in its Golden Boot market; after Balogun’s two-goal night he moved to +1600 and into a tie for fifth in the odds, level with Cristiano Ronaldo. That left Kylian Mbappé as the clear favorite at +600, followed by Harry Kane at +650, Mikel Oyarzabal at +1000 and Erling Haaland at +1400. The scoreline and the odds swing made Friday night an unusually profitable one for U.S. backers and for BetMGM customers nationwide.
The raw result is striking on its own terms: the U.S. had never scored four goals in a World Cup match until this game. Historically, the team’s World Cup high had been three goals in a single match on three separate occasions; by contrast, at the 2022 World Cup the U.S. managed just two goals across its three group-stage games. That history shows why Friday’s flood of chances and finishes matters beyond a single scoreline.
What makes the result sharper is that it collided with pre-match assessments of the opposition. Paraguay had been described as having looked quite strong defensively during CONMEBOL qualifying, which made the four-goal outcome unexpected. Observers with the betting market noted that Balogun’s quick brace forced oddsmakers to recalibrate — a striker who had been scarcely on many radar screens is suddenly lumped among the tournament’s leading names.
The match produced immediate payout events: wagers on the U.S. moneyline, USA -1.5, a two-goal night from Balogun and both teams to score all landed for many customers. Industry sources called it a very good day for bettors who had backed the U.S. or BetMGM’s listed options; one veteran remarked that he never imagined seeing the U.S. score four in a World Cup game. Another market insider pointed out that a two-goal head start against established name talent accelerates a player’s climb in the betting ranks, even as he cautioned that a lot of football remains to be played.
The practical consequence is immediate and measurable: Balogun has been elevated into the same tier as established stars among world cup favorites for the Golden Boot, and bookmakers will be watching every subsequent minute of tournament play for further adjustments. The unresolved question now — and the one that will drive both headlines and odds — is whether Friday’s game was a peak night or the start of a sustained run; only more matches will tell whether Balogun can keep his place among the tournament’s scoring leaders.
