irs tax refund averages nearly 11% higher so far this year, IRS data show
Early tax filers are seeing bigger refunds this season, with the average irs tax refund reaching $2, 290 as of Feb. 6, 2026 ET — nearly 11% higher than the same point a year earlier. The shift reflects new federal tax provisions and the staggered timing of who files early.
Why refunds are larger this filing season
IRS figures for early February show an uptick in the average refund amount for returns processed so far. Forecasters have pointed to a package of tax changes enacted in July 2025 as the principal driver of the increase. Provisions in that legislation extended and altered multiple tax breaks that affect 2025 returns filed in 2026, bolstering refunds for many taxpayers.
Financial analysts projected notable gains. One investment firm estimated the typical payment could rise by roughly $1, 000 per filer, while another analysis emphasized that the largest dollar benefits are likely to land with higher-income households. Still, lower-earning taxpayers are expected to see some increases as well, though generally smaller than those enjoyed by wealthier filers.
Who benefits most and when refunds arrive
Data and policy analyses indicate that the top 10% of households will capture a disproportionate share of the largest increases in refund size, driven by changes that more heavily favor higher incomes. That said, early-season averages can be misleading: lower-income taxpayers often file earlier in the season, and their refunds tend to be smaller, so the average refund typically grows as wealthier households with more complex returns file later in February and March.
Tax season opened on Jan. 26, 2026 ET. By the first week of February the IRS had processed nearly 22. 4 million returns, slightly fewer than the roughly 23. 6 million processed at the same point last year. For those who file electronically and choose direct deposit, refunds are usually issued within about 21 days after processing. The average refund amount historically starts smaller, peaks in mid-February, then eases somewhat through the end of the filing season; last year’s final average refund was $2, 939.
Timing issues and common delays to watch for
Some refunds are held longer by federal rules designed to reduce fraud and protect refundable credits. Returns that claim the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit are subject to a mandatory mid-February hold so the IRS can verify income and identity, which tends to push those payments into later February or March. The agency expects overall refund numbers to rise in its Feb. 27, 2026 ET update as more of those refund claims are processed.
Other factors that can delay refunds include returns that require additional review, claims involving injured spouse allocation forms, and complicated returns that need more time to process. Taxpayers who file electronically, select direct deposit and have no issues are most likely to receive refunds in the shortest timeframe.
The season will continue to evolve as more returns arrive and the IRS publishes weekly updates through the filing period. For many taxpayers, the size and timing of refunds this year will come down to which credits and provisions apply to their individual returns and when they choose to file.
