White House Projects Record irs tax refund Season as Early Data Show Bigger Checks
President Donald Trump has touted substantially larger tax refunds this year tied to last summer's "One Big Beautiful Bill, " claiming some filers could see more than 20% returned. Early federal filing data and the law's provisions suggest many taxpayers will receive larger refunds in the 2026 filing season, though timing and distribution will vary across income groups.
Trump's claims and the changes behind bigger refunds
The administration has pointed to a package of tax changes implemented in 2025 that are expected to affect returns filed in 2026. Prominent elements highlighted by the White House include elimination of federal income tax on tips, exclusion of Social Security benefits from taxable income for seniors in certain circumstances, removal of tax on overtime pay, and new interest-deduction rules for auto loans. Lawmakers also moved to extend and make permanent many of the individual tax cuts originally enacted in the 2017 tax law.
President Trump has used social and public statements to emphasize projected increases, urging voters to note the policy impact when they receive their refunds. Administrators of the tax code and independent forecasters have pointed out that the changes will lift average refunds for many filers, though the magnitude depends on household income, filing complexity and eligibility for specific tax breaks.
What the IRS data show and who benefits most
Early-season IRS figures indicate average refunds rose notably compared with the same point last year. As of February 6, 2026 ET, the average refund for returns processed was higher than the comparable period in 2025. Filers who receive the largest boosts are generally in the upper tail of the income distribution, while lower-income households also see gains but typically not as large.
Analysts note a timing wrinkle: lower-income taxpayers often file earlier in the season, while wealthier households file later because of more complex returns. That pattern can make average refund amounts look smaller early on and then rise as higher-refund returns are processed. Some private forecasters projected average increases in the neighborhood of roughly $1, 000 per filer over prior-year levels, but distributional analyses emphasize the concentration of gains among higher-income households.
Timing, holds and what could delay your irs tax refund
Tax season began on January 26, 2026 ET, and the usual filing deadline for 2025 returns is April 15, 2026 ET. For taxpayers who file electronically and opt for direct deposit, most refunds are issued within about three weeks after the return is accepted and processed. The IRS typically updates public processing metrics weekly during the filing season.
Certain credits and forms can trigger statutory holds that delay refunds. Returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit are subject to a mandatory hold until mid-February to allow the agency time to verify income and identity information. Returns that include Form 8379, used for injured spouse allocations, can also be held while allocations and offsets are resolved. Those with mismatches, identity-verification requests or other issues may see longer waits.
Taxpayers concerned about timing should file electronically, choose direct deposit, and respond promptly to any IRS notices. Refund timing will continue to evolve through mid- to late-February as withheld holds clear, and final season averages will be established after the April 15, 2026 ET filing deadline.
While expectations of larger refunds are widely discussed in public statements, the actual effect on any individual will depend on filing status, income sources, credits claimed, and whether tax preparers and filers accurately apply the new provisions on 2025 returns.
