irs: How a federal shutdown could affect your tax refund and ways to avoid delays

A partial federal government shutdown can raise uncertainty for taxpayers waiting on refunds. Automated systems at the IRS continue to process many returns, but staffing shortfalls and required manual reviews can create bottlenecks — particularly for returns that include certain refundable credits. Here’s what taxpayers should watch for and practical steps to limit delays as the April 15, 2026 (ET) filing deadline approaches.

Why some refunds keep moving while others stall

The IRS’s automated processing remains active during a partial shutdown. Electronically filed returns that use direct deposit and contain no errors generally move through processing within the standard 21-day window. That offers reassurance for many filers who meet those criteria.

Problems arise when a return is flagged for human review. Those reviews require staff intervention that can be constrained if federal personnel levels are reduced. When fewer staff are available, returns pulled for manual checks can sit longer than normal, creating uneven processing times across taxpayers.

Political and policy developments are also shaping expectations for this filing season. The One Big Beautiful Bill passed last year has been promoted as delivering larger refunds for some taxpayers, with claims that refunds could be more than 20% higher for certain filers. Provisions cited include changes that could affect taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, overtime pay, and interest deductions tied to vehicle loans. Whether individual taxpayers see larger refunds will depend on how those provisions interact with their specific returns.

Which refunds are most likely to be delayed

Certain credits and forms trigger mandatory verification steps that cannot be fully automated. Refunds that include the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) are subject to a required hold until mid-February each year so the agency can verify income and identity. That federal-law timing applies regardless of when the return was filed.

Other scenarios that commonly produce delays include returns that require an Injured Spouse Allocation on IRS Form 8379 or returns where identity, income discrepancies, or other red flags demand manual review. During a staffing-constrained period, these cases are the most vulnerable to extended processing times.

State tax processing is not affected by a federal shutdown. For Oklahoma taxpayers, for example, state refunds can be checked through the state’s portal independently of federal timelines.

Practical steps taxpayers can take now

• Use the IRS “Where’s My Refund?” tool and check it once a day. The tool updates daily and typically reflects status changes within 24 hours of e-file acceptance.
• Wait at least 21 days for electronically filed returns with direct deposit before escalating. Many refunds clear in that window when no issues exist.
• If there’s no update after four to five weeks from acceptance, be prepared to contact the IRS directly. Have your tax return, Social Security number, and filing status ready.
• If you claimed EITC, ACTC, or filed Form 8379, anticipate longer processing and plan your cash flow accordingly, since those returns are subject to additional verification and holds until mid-February.
• Protect yourself from scams: the busy season and heightened uncertainty are prime times for fraud. The IRS will not initiate unsolicited messages asking for personal financial information by email or text.
• Check your state refund separately through your state’s portal so you can track those payments even if a federal delay occurs.

Most taxpayers who file electronically, choose direct deposit and have clean returns should still expect normal processing. But if your return falls into one of the categories that require manual review, prepare for a slower timeline and use the available tools to monitor progress before making contact.