Democrats hold a 5-point lead in the battle for control of Congress, a new NBC News poll shows, giving the party its clearest national advantage so far in this year’s congressional election. Forty-nine percent of registered voters prefer Democratic control, while 44% favor Republicans and 7% are unsure.
The poll lands as Trump’s approval rating among registered voters has slipped to 42%, a second-term low in NBC News surveys, with 39% approval among all adults. His standing is much weaker among independents, two-thirds of whom disapprove of his job performance, and among Latinos and voters ages 18 to 29, where disapproval far outweighs approval.
The numbers point to a congressional map that still leans Democratic at the top line, but not uniformly. Independents back Democratic control by 12 points, 46% to 34%, and majorities of Black voters, Latino voters, voters under 50 and college graduates say they want Democrats in charge. Republicans, though, retain an edge among men, white voters and voters without a college education, keeping the race from breaking fully in one direction.
The new result is almost unchanged from NBC News’ March poll, when Democrats held a 6-point lead on the generic ballot. It also follows a wider pattern in recent cycles: in 2024, 95% of Harris voters preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress and 90% of Trump voters wanted a Republican-controlled one, showing how closely the fight for Congress still tracks presidential politics.
Bill McInturff called the numbers “rocky” for Republicans but not catastrophic, while Jeff Horwitt said Democrats are “still in a really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats” and added that this does not need to become 2018 for them to benefit. That is the core of the story: Democrats have the edge, but not the kind of collapse in Republican support that would guarantee a wave.
The poll was sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on advancing democracy. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take the House, but they face a much tougher climb in the Senate, where they would need four additional seats for a majority and Trump’s double-digit wins in several states last year make that path harder. The next real test is Election Day, and this survey says the party control battle is still open even as the electorate tilts against Republicans in the moment.
