The 2026 NBA Finals between the Knicks and Spurs remains wide open after three games, and the early Finals MVP market is anything but settled heading into Game 4. New York opened the series with two road wins to take a 2-0 lead, but San Antonio's victory in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden prevented an early decision in the award race; every remaining game tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Through three games a handful of performances has scrambled the finals mvp odds. Jalen Brunson has averaged over 27 points while fighting through injury and heavy physical play from San Antonio, keeping him squarely in the conversation as the Knicks’ primary scorer. Victor Wembanyama answered in Game 3 with a dominant all-around line — 32 points, eight rebounds, six assists and three blocks at Madison Square Garden — the kind of night that can swing perception and betting markets overnight. Karl-Anthony Towns drew early MVP hype for his work defending Wembanyama and for serving as a facilitator in New York’s offense, and OG Anunoby has taken some of the Wembanyama assignment while providing consistently reliable offense for the Knicks.
The numbers so far carry weight: Brunson’s scoring average through three games and Wembanyama’s Game 3 stat line are the clearest indicators that the award could land with either side. That split is exactly why the Finals MVP debate is active now. New York’s two road wins suggested a quick path to a Knicks player locking up the trophy; San Antonio’s Game 3 victory underlined that the Spurs’ chances — and Wembanyama’s candidacy — are very much alive.
Context matters: the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP award has long been given to the player deemed most valuable over the Finals, and history includes both dominant winners and surprise choices. The list of past winners ranges from perennial selections like Michael Jordan — a six-time winner — to single-series standouts; that precedent means voters and oddsmakers watch both sustained series-long production and game-changing peaks.
The friction in this series is straightforward. New York’s early road sweep suggested momentum for a Knicks candidate, but San Antonio’s Game 3 carry removed the inevitability. If the Spurs come back from the 2-1 deficit to win the series, the drive will almost certainly be on Victor Wembanyama’s back — his Game 3 showed he can be the centerpiece of a comeback and accelerate his MVP case in a single showing. Conversely, if New York steadies itself and closes the series, Brunson’s scoring through pain and Towns’ defensive and facilitating role would likely be the foundation of a Knicks win and the attendant MVP claim.
Practical details for viewers matter: each remaining game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET, and the next contest will be the clearest live test of which narrative the Finals will follow. For bettors, pundits and fans weighing finals mvp odds, the variables to watch are clear and immediate: can Brunson maintain his scoring despite injury and the Spurs’ physical defense; will Towns continue to limit Wembanyama while directing New York’s attack; and can Wembanyama reproduce or exceed his Game 3 dominance on both ends to flip the series momentum?
The unresolved question is which performance pattern will hold. Through three games no single player has established an insurmountable case; the award is still attachment to the series outcome. If Brunson’s scoring and Towns’ two-way influence carry New York to a title, one of them will likely collect the MVP. If Wembanyama turns his Game 3 breakout into a multi-game force and carries San Antonio back, the Finals MVP race will have shifted decisively in his favor. The next set of games will answer that — and quickly narrow the finals mvp odds for good.
