Jake Matthews will face Carlston Harris in a welterweight bout at UFC Macau, a matchup that pairs a veteran with a three-fight surge against a returning opponent coming off visa troubles and back-to-back defeats.
Matthews arrives with a 22-8 professional record and a 15-8 UFC ledger compiled since 2014. He had rattled off three straight wins over Phil Rowe, Francisco Prado and Chidi Njokuani before running into Neil Magny in his most recent outing. Matthews stands 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach.
Harris is 19-7 as a pro and 4-3 inside the promotion since 2021. The six-foot, 76-inch-reach fighter last lost to Santiago Ponzinibbio by TKO in January 2025 and has recorded consecutive losses for the first time in his career, both ending via knockout. Before the Macau booking he also withdrew from a scheduled fight against Michael Chiese because of visa issues. Harris fights behind a 55% takedown defense rate.
On paper, Matthews is the sharper striker and the more technical wrestler; he also carries a notable blemish that shapes the matchup. He has been submitted four times in his career, an opening that invites a different approach from Harris. The Brazilian's length and grappling — underscored by a three-inch reach advantage — create plausible paths to exploit Matthews's history with subs even as Harris seeks to recover from consecutive stoppages.
That dynamic is the core question for UFC Macau: can Matthews use his striking and wrestling to keep the fight where he wants it, or will Harris turn range and grappling into control and submission chances? The numbers tilt one way on paper — Matthews is the betting favorite and Harris the underdog — but the fight map contains genuine cross-currents. Harris's recent knockout losses raise durability questions; Matthews's submission history invites attack on the mat.
Practically, the bout will be decided by two basic threads. If Matthews can cut the distance, impose his wrestling and avoid risky exchanges on the ground, he should be able to outpoint or stop his foe. If Harris keeps range with his longer reach, mixes in takedown work and forces scrambles, he has the tools to capitalize on those four past submissions. Which thread prevails will determine whether Matthews reasserts momentum or Harris engineers a comeback from consecutive KOs and the disruption of a visa withdrawal.
That is the unresolved hinge heading into UFC Macau: whether Matthews’s improved striking and technical wrestling can neutralize the specific threat Harris presents, or whether Harris’s length and grappling will prove the corrective the Brazilian needs. The fight will answer it when the two meet in Macau.
