weather tomorrow: Near-record warmth in Cincinnati, then storms bring tornado risk

Short take: A blast of unseasonably warm air will push temperatures into the upper 60s across parts of the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. Morning rain Wednesday will clear, but a warm front Thursday afternoon could trigger strong to severe storms with damaging winds and a small tornado risk before a cold front sends temperatures tumbling Friday.

Midweek warmth and Wednesday conditions

Warmer-than-normal air will spread into the region Wednesday, producing highs near 68°F in Cincinnati and reaching about 70°F in some nearby cities. Rain is likely early Wednesday, mainly before 9: 00 a. m. ET, with cloud cover breaking up through the late morning and early afternoon. Southwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 13 mph, with gusts up to the mid-20s.

Expect light precipitation totals for the morning round — generally less than a tenth of an inch — followed by drier conditions and increasing clouds into the evening. Overnight lows will stay mild, dropping only into the lower 50s in many locations, keeping readings near record-high low thresholds for mid-February.

Thursday threat: warm front, strong storms and tornado potential

Thursday is the focal point for severe weather risk. A warm front will lift through the area in the afternoon, and with it comes a heightened chance for rain and thunderstorms after about 4: 00 p. m. ET. Forecast guidance places the probability of measurable precipitation at roughly 80 percent for much of the region, with localized heavier downpours possible in stronger cells.

There is uncertainty in how much storms will intensify, but the primary hazards expected during the late afternoon and early evening are damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Small hail is possible in the strongest updrafts. Timing for the most active window is roughly late afternoon into the early evening, with individual storms capable of producing quarter-inch to half-inch rainfall in spots, and higher totals within thunderstorm cores.

Temperatures will remain notably warm ahead of the front, with highs near 69°F in Cincinnati and readings around 66–70°F in surrounding urban corridors. Once the cold front moves through late Thursday night into Friday morning, conditions will shift markedly cooler.

Late week cooldown and weekend outlook

The cold frontal passage Friday will usher in much cooler air. Highs on Friday will fall back to around the upper 40s to low 50s in many locations, with breezy west to northwest winds. Friday night will be clear to partly cloudy with lows dropping to around freezing in the colder spots.

Saturday looks mostly sunny with highs near the upper 40s, but a more pronounced chill arrives by Sunday when afternoon readings struggle into the upper 30s. There is a modest chance of a rain-to-snow transition late Saturday night into Sunday in some inland areas, but overall precipitation amounts at that time are expected to be light.

Timing reminders: Expect morning showers Wednesday before clearing by midafternoon ET. Monitor the late-afternoon to early-evening period Thursday for thunderstorm development. A colder, drier regime settles in Friday and persists into the weekend.

Residents should have multiple ways to receive severe weather alerts Thursday and be prepared to take shelter quickly if a warning is issued for their area. While the exact track and intensity of storms still have some forecast uncertainty, the potential for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes merits heightened awareness through the late afternoon and evening hours.