The Toronto Maple Leafs will select first overall in the 2026 draft — their first No. 1 pick since 2016 — and new general manager John Chayka must decide by June 26 whether to take Gavin McKenna, grab Ivar Stenberg, pick another prospect, trade down or move the pick entirely.
McKenna's numbers give Chayka something concrete to weigh. In his final WHL season with Medicine Hat he scored 129 points in 56 games. He also recorded 51 points in 35 games in his freshman season at Penn State, with 33 of those points coming in his final 18 college games. McKenna is from Whitehorse, Yukon; those production totals are the core of his appeal to teams considering the top choice.
The pick itself carries historical weight. It will be only the third time the Maple Leafs have selected first overall — they took Wendel Clark in 1985 and Auston Matthews in 2016 — and it arrives after a 2025–26 campaign that saw Toronto miss the post‑season for the first time in a decade. The result: a new front office and a new coach about to take over the bench, and the No. 1 selection is the first major test for that new regime.
Scouts are divided over who belongs at the very top. Some see McKenna's scoring résumé as decisive; others point to Ivar Stenberg. That split leaves the Maple Leafs weighing a narrow but consequential margin. "The pros here are clear — drafting McKenna seems the safest option for Toronto," Sportsnet wrote, encapsulating the argument that production and predictability favor McKenna.
Toronto's decision is complicated by roster and asset considerations. The club also owns a second‑round pick at 59th overall as a result of the Scott Laughton trade, giving Chayka another entry point into the draft. That additional pick makes trading down an option that could convert the No. 1 selection into multiple assets — the list of choices the team is said to be considering includes drafting McKenna, drafting Stenberg, taking a different player at No. 1, trading down, or trading the pick away outright.
The tension is straightforward: McKenna's case is built on clear, recent production in both junior and college hockey; the counterargument is uncertainty at the top of the class and the potential to extract more long‑term value by moving the pick. For a franchise entering a new era, the decision is both a talent evaluation and a statement about strategy.
How the Maple Leafs resolve that friction will matter immediately. A selection of McKenna would reward a player with a proven scoring trajectory and signal a preference for ready production at the top of a draft. Choosing Stenberg or another prospect would signal confidence in projection over track record. Trading the pick would prioritize depth and future flexibility over landing a single marquee talent.
Chayka inherits a clear, binary spotlight: use the No. 1 pick to import the kind of scoring McKenna produced, or convert the pick into a different return that reshapes the roster depth chart. Whichever route he chooses on June 26 will define the new management team's first major act and set the direction for the club after a decade of postseason regularity and a season that ended without one.
