Vix and Nifty: Market eyes breakout after US Supreme Court ruling
The vix registers as a shorthand for market nervousness as equities opened the week higher but then reversed sharply, leaving traders watching whether a breakout above 26, 000 for the Nifty will stick after the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs levied by President Donald Trump.
Markets gave back early gains; foreign flows swung to sellers
Benchmark indices — Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index — began the week on a positive note and moved up well in the first half, then reversed sharply lower in the second half of the week, surrendering most of the early gains. The equity segment saw Foreign Portfolio Investors turn net sellers after two weeks of buying, registering a net outflow of about $304 million last week.
Technical picture: supports, resistances and short-term targets
On the charts, analysts say little has changed: the broader bias remains positive with clear support zones. Nifty has support in the 25, 200-25, 100 region and is struggling to breach the psychological 26, 000 mark; a bounce from the support is expected to take Nifty back to 26, 000 and then to 26, 400-26, 500 in the short term. If Nifty breaks below 25, 100, the projections note an extended fall to 24, 800 or 24, 400 before any sustainable recovery to 26, 000.
Vix in focus as traders weigh bank and midcap setups
Nifty Bank shows immediate supports at 60, 100 and 59, 600, with the bias to rise to 62, 200 initially and 63, 000 eventually; a decline below 59, 600 would open 59, 000-58, 800, though a fall beyond 58, 800 is considered unlikely from the charts. Sensex needs to hold the 82, 150-82, 000 region to resume a move toward 84, 000; a sustained break above 84, 000 would clear the way for a revisit of 86, 000. The Nifty Midcap 150 index faces resistance around 22, 200, with support at 21, 600-21, 500 and a potential initial target of 22, 800 on a decisive breach of 22, 200.
Medium- and long-term thresholds that would change the view
Medium-term scenarios remain bullish across indices as long as key supports hold. For Nifty, the broader bullish view stays intact while the index remains above the 24, 000-23, 500 support zone, with projections of 27, 500-28, 000 in the medium term and 30, 000-31, 000 in the long term; a decisive break above 26, 500 can trigger that rally. Nifty Bank could reach 64, 000-65, 000 in the medium term and 68, 000-69, 000 in the long term, while its long-term outlook will turn negative only if the index declines below 53, 500.
A short weekly forecast that covers 23 Feb’26 to 27 Feb’26 reiterated much of this technical outlook and highlighted the US Supreme Court’s ruling as broadly positive for markets, while noting uncertainty over near-term reaction. Market participants will look for follow-through buying to confirm the upside; absent that, the listed support zones will be where sellers test the backdrop.
Traders and investors will be watching how markets open on Monday and whether the Nifty can sustain a move above the 25, 200-25, 100 support and build toward 26, 000; the immediate next confirmed event is the market’s reaction on Monday to the court ruling and recent fund flows.
