Midweek warmup then storms: weather tomorrow brings tornado risk for parts of the Midwest
Unseasonably warm air will push temperatures into the upper 60s across parts of the Ohio Valley this week, but the mild spell is fleeting. A warm front will lift through the region Thursday, setting the stage for a potentially severe round of storms in the late afternoon and early evening. Residents should prepare for gusty winds, heavy rain and the possibility of isolated tornadoes between 1 and 7 p. m. ET.
Warmth builds Wednesday, record readings in some spots
Warm southwest winds will boost highs Wednesday into the upper 60s in many locations. Rain is likely mainly in the morning, tapering off before midmorning and allowing skies to gradually clear. Expect peak readings near 68 to 70°F Wednesday afternoon, with gusts that could reach the mid-20s mph. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.
One local airport observation climbed to 70°F by mid-afternoon Wednesday, surpassing a long-standing daily record for Feb. 18 that had stood for decades. That warmth is short-lived: a change in the pattern late Thursday and into Friday will drive temperatures back toward seasonable or below-seasonable values.
Severe threat arrives Thursday afternoon and evening
A warm front will move through Thursday afternoon and help trigger thunderstorms. Timing will be critical: the main threat window is expected between roughly 1 and 7 p. m. ET. Storms could organize into a line or clusters that produce damaging straight-line winds and, in isolated cases, tornadoes. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall are additional hazards.
Forecasters emphasize uncertainty in how far north and west the highest-end severe threat will reach, but a focused area just east of I-57 and near and north of I-64 has been identified as most vulnerable. Residents in that swath should monitor conditions closely Thursday afternoon and have a plan to move to sturdy shelter if a warning is issued.
Forecast rainfall totals for the event are generally modest but locally higher amounts are possible within stronger thunderstorms. Widespread totals of a few tenths of an inch are expected, with heavier pockets potentially producing a quarter to a half-inch or more. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will shift to the west or northwest behind it, ushering in a cooler airmass.
Cold front ushers in cooler weekend; timing and impacts
The cold front will sweep through Friday, dropping highs into the 40s and bringing noticeably colder conditions by the weekend. Friday itself should be drier but breezy, with highs near 50°F. Friday night and Saturday will feel much cooler, with Saturday highs struggling near the upper 40s and lows dipping near or below freezing overnight.
Late-week precipitation that falls Saturday night or Sunday may change character in the colder air, producing a limited chance of rain mixing with or changing to snow in some spots. By Sunday and early next week, temperatures should remain closer to or below normal for mid-February, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s.
Given the potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening, residents should check the latest local forecasts and be prepared to act quickly if watches or warnings are issued. The warm window is brief, and the cooler pattern that follows will bring a sharp contrast to the midweek warmth.
