2026 winter olympics women's single skating free skating: Nakai's surprise lead sets up dramatic Thursday finale
Seventeen-year-old Ami Nakai exploded onto the Olympic stage with a high-energy short program that put her atop the leaderboard and turned the women's event into one of the must-see sessions of these Games. The free skating on Thursday (ET) will decide medals in what has become a tightly packed and deeply compelling competition.
Nakai stuns field with veteran poise and big jumping content
Nakai, the youngest skater in the 29-competitor field, opened with a breathtaking triple axel and followed with the technical ammunition that elite judges reward. Landing a triple lutz–triple toe loop combination and executing clean rotation throughout, she posted a season- and personal-best short program score that pushed three-time world champion Kaori Sakamoto into second and reigning world champion Alysa Liu into contention behind them.
Her run-up to the Olympics had been brief on the senior circuit, a result of rule changes that raised the minimum age threshold; that limited international exposure made her rise all the more striking. Nakai’s lower world ranking also placed her earlier in the starting order—18th of 29—yet she turned that middle-of-the-pack draw into an advantage, delivering a confident performance that included broad smiles and a celebratory fist pump at the final pose.
Podium permutations and Japan's chance at a sweep
Japan’s women arrive at the free skate with momentum. Sakamoto, 25, remains a dominant presence after multiple world titles and an Olympic bronze in 2022. Her short program was elegant and emotive, and she acknowledged that small errors left room for improvement. Sakamoto has signaled that this season is her last, making Thursday's free skating potentially the final competitive program of a storied career.
Alysa Liu, who returned to the sport after a break and later captured a world title, sits close enough on the leaderboard to stay a realistic gold medal threat. Her short program featured solid jump content and high levels of execution that put her squarely in medal range. Other contenders, including Mone Chiba, also landed strong short programs and keep the prospect of an all-Japanese podium alive—a feat never achieved in Olympic women's figure skating.
The Americans had mixed results in the short program. While Liu kept the U. S. in the hunt, teammates struggled to match the top technical scores; missed levels and under-rotations left a gap to bridge in the free skate. For the United States, a podium return in the women's event remains possible but will require near-flawless long programs under pressure.
Free skate scenario: what to watch on Thursday (ET)
The 24-minute free skating segment will be decisive. With technical difficulty stacked at the top, skaters who combine clean triple axels or consistent quad-level content with strong component scores will have the clearest path to medals. Nakai must reproduce or improve upon her short program's jump success, while Sakamoto and Liu will aim to use experience and higher base values to overtake the leader.
Judges will reward both risk and polish. Under-rotations, edge calls and level downgrades on spins and step sequences can swing standings sharply. Expect tactical decisions from a handful of skaters: some will add risky elements in pursuit of gold, others will skate conservatively to secure a podium spot. The outcome could also hinge on program component marks—interpretation, skating skills and performance quality—which often separate top-scoring skaters when technical scores are close.
Thursday's free skating (ET) promises drama: a teenager who has outperformed expectations, a decorated champion skating potentially for the last time, and a field deep enough that small mistakes will cost medals. For viewers and neutrals, it is a rare, electric finish to the women's singles competition at these Games.
