weather tomorrow: Near-record warmth in Cincinnati, Tornado Risk as Storms Move In
Expect a dramatic swing in conditions across parts of the Ohio Valley: unseasonably warm air will push highs into the upper 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, then a late-day frontal system brings the potential for strong thunderstorms, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes before colder air returns Friday (all times ET).
Warmth and wet start, then clearing Wednesday
Warm southwest winds will drive temperatures above seasonal norms Wednesday. In Cincinnati, morning rain is likely mainly before 9 a. m., with clouds breaking by midmorning and highs climbing near 68°F. Winds from the southwest are expected around 10–13 mph with gusts up to about 24 mph. Precipitation amounts should be light overall, with new totals generally under a tenth of an inch where showers occur. Nighttime temperatures will stay mild, falling only into the low 50s.
Nearby Indianapolis already pushed into the upper 60s on Wednesday, briefly surpassing a long-standing daily high record. The warmth will be short-lived, however, as the approaching frontal system is poised to change the pattern by late Thursday.
Thursday: frontal arrival brings severe risk in late afternoon and evening
A warm front will lift through the region Thursday afternoon, priming the atmosphere for a higher chance of thunderstorms after about 4 p. m. in many locations. Forecast highs will be close to 66–69°F ahead of the line. The National Weather Service in Wilmington issued a hazardous weather outlook noting uncertainty in storm strength, but highlighted the potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes during the late day into the early evening. The greatest severe threat is expected generally between early afternoon and early evening, with a broad window from about 1–7 p. m. ET in some areas.
Heavy rainfall pockets are possible in stronger storms, and small hail cannot be ruled out. Rainfall totals through Thursday night could average a few tenths of an inch, with localized higher amounts in persistent thunderstorms. Winds will shift more southerly to southwest ahead of the front and then turn gusty as the line advances.
Colder air arrives Friday; weekend turns more typical
A cold front will sweep through Friday, ending the severe threat and knocking temperatures back toward seasonal levels. Highs on Friday are expected to fall into the 40s for many communities, with blustery west and northwest winds in the wake of the front. Overnight lows Friday night will dip to near freezing in some spots.
Saturday should feel more settled, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s. The holiday weekend will trend cooler, with highs in the 30s by Sunday and the chance that light rain could mix with or change to snow for a time overnight Saturday into Sunday in the coldest pockets. By early next week, conditions are expected to remain mostly cloudy with near- to below-normal temperatures and overnight lows dropping into the 20s.
Residents in the affected areas should stay alert Thursday afternoon and evening for rapidly changing conditions. Prepare for gusty winds and heavy rain with locally poor visibility, and have a plan to move to a safe interior location if warned for tornadoes or destructive straight-line winds.
