Donald Trump’s support among independents has fallen sharply since the 2024 campaign, slipping from 43% during the election period to about a quarter now, according to -NORC polling that tracked the shift through the first months of his second term. The drop leaves Trump much weaker with the bloc that helped lift him in 2024, even as Republicans stayed loyal and Democrats remained almost uniformly opposed.
The polling is based on 21 waves of surveys and shows the decline was not a single dip. -NORC grouped independents across five periods, from the 2024 campaign and pre-presidency months through the first 100 days, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and the period from Jan. 8 to April 20, 2026. Across that stretch, Republican support hovered around 75% and Democratic support around 5%, while Trump’s backing among independents fell 17 points from where it stood before he took office.
The erosion was steepest among independents without a college degree. They backed Trump at 48% during the election and pre-presidency period, then fell to 27% during the period that included the Iran war. Among college-educated independents, support moved from 29% to 24%, narrowing an education gap that existed before Trump returned to office. The drop also showed up among younger voters, with support among independents under 60 pulling back while those 60 or older remained relatively stable.
Race and ethnicity tell a similar story. Black independent support fell from 38% during the election to 17% during the period when the One Big Beautiful Bill was passed. Hispanic independent support dropped from 46% to 15% during the government shutdown period, and fell by 20 percentage points during Trump’s first 100 days. Independent men and women both lost ground, too, with each group sitting at around 4 in 10 during the campaign and down to about a quarter during the Iran war period.
The pattern matters because independents were one of the groups that shifted toward Trump in 2024, and -NORC’s analysis says their retreat has been steady throughout his second term. What the numbers do not answer is why the pullback happened when it did, or which policies and events mattered most to the voters who drifted away.
For Trump, the warning is not that he has lost the party that nominated him. It is that the independent voters who helped make him competitive in the first place are no longer holding at the same level, and the polling shows that decline has already lasted through several major moments of his presidency.
