A First Alert Weather Day is in effect through this afternoon as hit-and-miss thunderstorms move through parts of Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky. The biggest risk for a heavy storm is in Nashville and areas north through Southern Kentucky, where soaking downpours, localized flooding and brief strong wind gusts are possible.
The threat is not the same everywhere. Some neighborhoods may stay dry, but any storm that does develop could still drop heavy rain fast enough to make roadways difficult and cause problems in poor drainage areas, especially where storms slow down or train over the same spot.
Temperatures will add to the uncomfortable feel. Highs today are expected in the mid to upper 80s, with a heat index in the 90s, even as the storms come and go. That means the weather may turn stormy without much warning, then settle back into humid heat just as quickly.
After today, the pattern does not settle down right away. An isolated shower or storm could linger into the first half of Wednesday, though many areas should be dry by afternoon. Wednesday's temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, and the heat index is expected to top off near, if not over, 100°.
Thursday brings more heat and humidity with highs in the low 90s under a partly cloudy sky. Another round of showers and storms is expected Friday afternoon and Friday evening before tapering off for the weekend, with temperatures near 90.
The weekend looks somewhat quieter, but not completely dry everywhere. A shower could linger into early Saturday, though most of the day should stay dry with highs in the upper 80s and a mix of clouds and sunshine. Another isolated storm is possible late Sunday, but most areas are expected to stay dry again with temperatures in the upper 80s.
For now, the key point is that the storm threat today is localized rather than universal. Nashville and places north have the best chance to see a heavy thunderstorm, but any storm that forms across the region can still bring short bursts of dangerous rain and wind, and the next rounds arrive again by Friday.
