Climate Central says climate change is making the 2026 FIFA World Cup Games hotter and has flagged several matches this week that are forecast to be played in climate-change-driven heat.
Among the examples listed, Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Portugal is forecast to reach a high of 33.4°C (92.1°F) — above the 28°C athlete performance threshold — with an 11.5°C (20.8°F) departure from normal and a Climate Shift Index of 3. Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in Spain is also on the list, with a forecast average of 21°C (69.8°F), a departure from normal of 1.2°C (2.2°F) and the same CSI value of 3.
The numbers matter because they link a concrete temperature threshold to athlete outcomes: 28°C is identified as the point above which player performance can be expected to slow, and several fixtures this week sit near or above that line. The departures from normal — 11.5°C at Magalhães Pessoa and 1.2°C at La Línea — show how much these days deviate from historical expectations, not just the absolute temperature on the thermometer.
The Climate Shift Index measures how climate change influences temperatures; a CSI of 2 means those conditions were made at least two times as likely by climate change. Climate Central has built an information hub to explore how rising heat could slow down player performance across all of the 2026 World Cup matches and to track heat risks as they develop.
There is, however, a complication worth noting. A CSI of 3 appears alongside both sites, yet one venue — Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa — is forecast well above the 28°C athlete threshold while Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción is not. That reveals a gap between attribution and immediate player risk: a higher CSI signals a stronger climate-driven change in likelihood, but it does not translate directly into the same on-field heat outcome at every venue on the same day. In short, stronger climate influence does not mean identical local temperatures or identical risks to athletes.
Practically speaking, the combination of a forecast above 28°C and a large departure from normal at Magalhães Pessoa suggests a clear short-term risk to players in matches held there: higher temperatures are linked to slower performance across the tournament, and the Portuguese venue meets both the threshold and an unusually large anomaly. Other listed matches this week may sit below the threshold yet still carry elevated climate attribution, which complicates how teams and organizers assess day-to-day risk.
What remains unresolved is which specific 2026 World Cup matches will face the worst heat overall. Climate Central’s hub is positioned as the ongoing tool to follow those developments and to watch how attribution and forecasted highs converge as the tournament approaches. For readers and teams wanting a running read on heat risk, that hub is the place to monitor, because CSI values, departures from normal and absolute temperatures will continue to shift — and the single match-level map of greatest risk has not been fully spelled out yet.
