Sherrod Brown has opened an 8-point lead over Jon Husted in a new poll of Ohio voters, giving the Democrat a 53% to 45% edge in the race for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Husted. The margin is outside the survey’s sampling error and lands at a moment when both campaigns are trying to define the contest before the fall election.
The numbers point to a race shaped less by party loyalty than by cross-pressured voters. Brown is drawing 98% support from Democrats and 31% of non-MAGA Republicans, while Husted is holding 86% of Republicans. Brown also leads independents by 18 points, women by 14 points and voters under 35 by 33 points, enough to offset Husted’s strength with White evangelical Christians, rural voters and White men without a college degree.
The poll was released Wednesday and adds fresh evidence that Brown’s bid to return to the Senate is competitive even in a state Donald Trump carried by more than 11 percentage points in 2024. Trump is now viewed negatively by 57% of Ohioans and favorably by 42%, a roughly 20-point shift from his 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable rating in a election survey last November. That change appears to be hurting Husted more than helping him, with 46% of Ohioans worried he is too close to Trump, compared with 39% who say Brown is too liberal.
Brown’s own standing is solid for a candidate trying to win back a seat he narrowly lost in 2024 to Bernie Moreno. He is viewed favorably by 53% of respondents and unfavorably by 44%, while Husted is at 41% favorable and 50% unfavorable. The race is still fluid, though. About one in four Ohio voters say they may change their mind, and 73% of Brown supporters and 69% of Husted supporters say they are certain of their choice.
For now, the poll leaves Husted defending a seat he won only after being appointed when JD Vance became vice president, while Brown tries to turn fading Republican enthusiasm for Trump into a statewide opening. Whether that 8-point lead holds through Election Day is the question the survey cannot answer yet, but the result shows the contest is already moving into territory that should worry Republicans.
