The latest June outlook points to a much warmer-than-average start to summer from the Upper Midwest to the Intermountain West, while the Northwest and Northeast are expected to stay drier than normal. The forecast also calls for rainier weather across much of the South, a pattern that could keep temperatures cooler there as June begins.
The update from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 was issued on May 14, 2026, and it marks a shift tied to increasing El Niño conditions. A stronger subtropical jet is expected to form as those conditions build, and that can push rounds of moisture across the southern part of the country, helping make the South wetter while leaving the Northwest with the kind of drier and warmer weather that often shows up in Junes before a strong El Niño.
That mix gives June a split-screen feel across the United States. The Upper Midwest and the Intermountain West are set up for an early push of heat, but the South may spend more time under clouds and rain. The Northeast is also in a drier-than-normal stretch in the outlook, even as the source forecast points to a cooler tone in parts of the South because of those wetter conditions.
The tension in the forecast is that the same El Niño-driven setup can help both sides of the country at once. The stronger subtropical jet may deliver moisture to the South, but that same pattern does not guarantee a wet month everywhere, and the Northwest is singled out as a region that could miss out on that benefit. For now, the June outlook suggests a familiar early-summer split: hotter inland West, drier North, and a South that may be cooler only where repeated rain gets in the way of heat.
What the outlook answers today is simple. June is not shaping up as a uniform start to summer. It is looking warmer than average in the interior West, drier in the Northwest and Northeast, and more unsettled in the South if the El Niño-linked moisture track holds.
