Paul Skenes is the living center of a betting narrative heading into Thursday, May 28: the Chicago Cubs were listed as underdogs against Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates despite the right-hander coming off two poor outings.
That downgrade on paper rests on a simple short-term number line. Covers.com noted that "Paul Skenes is coming off the roughest two-game stretch of his young career, allowing nine earned runs in 10 innings of work in two losses for the Pittsburgh Pirates." Over those two starts Skenes gave up nine earned runs in 10 innings, and the Pirates played to totals of seven runs or less in five of his last six starts. The preview also pointed out that the Pirates hit the Under in each of Skenes's last four starts.
The betting case against Skenes is paired with concrete lines. Covers.com wrote: "The Cubs will take full advantage of Paul Skenes, who hasn't looked like himself in recent outings." The preview flagged a clear market split: "I’m backing Chicago to win this game as long as I can get a premium of +140 or more." It also recommended a runs play: "I’m taking the Under at 7.5 runs if we can get the standard -110 odds or better."
Behind that advice are two compact slabs of context. Offensively, Chicago averages 4.73 runs per game and has posted a.725 OPS, figures that justify confidence against a struggling starter. On the other side, the Pirates rank third-worst in whiff percentage this year at 27.5%, a stat that suggests their lineup may not punish mistakes consistently. In addition, Cubs right-hander Colin Rea brings a 4-3 record, a 4.83 ERA and a 32.2% chase rate into the matchup, numbers that keep this from being a one-sided pitching duel.
The tension in the matchup is obvious: Skenes's recent run of poor results sits awkwardly beside a persistent trend toward low-scoring games when he pitches. Five of his last six starts went seven runs or less, and the Under landed in his previous four—yet he nevertheless surrendered nine earned runs across those two losses. That split—a pitcher whose team underperforms in run production but whose own recent line was demonstrably bad—is the place bettors must choose which signal to trust.
That split also shapes how this game is being framed in the market. If a gambler accepts the short sample that shows Skenes faltering, Chicago's 4.73 runs per game and.725 OPS argue for taking the Cubs at the listed underdog price. If the market leans on the under-trend in Skenes starts and the Pirates' 27.5% whiff rate, the Under at 7.5 runs and standard -110 odds becomes the cleaner play. Covers.com summarized both sides and the practical bet: "I’m backing Chicago to win this game as long as I can get a premium of +140 or more," and separately, "I’m taking the Under at 7.5 runs if we can get the standard -110 odds or better."
Related coverage on lineup and matchup context appears elsewhere on the site, including Michael Conforto left out of Pirates lineup after 0-for-12 slump — Brandon Lowe: Cubs Seek Answers as Taillon, Chandler Meet Pirates May 27 — and Bubba Chandler draws May 22 start for Pirates as recent surge reshapes doubts —
For readers deciding a wager Thursday, the conclusion the preview reaches is explicit and actionable: with Skenes showing the recent damage he did in those two starts, back Chicago only if you can get +140 or better; take the Under at 7.5 only if -110 or better is available. That recommendation leaves the final choice in the hands of market prices: the numbers, not narrative, will decide whether bettors follow the call.
