U.S. stocks finished modestly higher on Thursday as investors absorbed reports of a U.S.-Iran agreement, a late earnings beat from Nvidia and a separate White House move on quantum computing; the Dow climbed 0.6% to a record close, the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1%.
Traders tracked nasdaq futures alongside the cash tape as the session split between geopolitical relief and lingering oil-market jitters. Oil prices had risen early in the day after Iran’s supreme leader issued a directive about the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium, a move that stoked concern about the Strait of Hormuz. By afternoon oil had swung back — Brent crude futures fell to roughly $102.30 per barrel, a loss of about 2.6%, and West Texas Intermediate slipped below $96, down roughly 2.5% — after earlier reports in the primary article had put Brent back near $104 per barrel and WTI below $100.
The geopolitical thread tightened when Iranian media said a finalized deal would guarantee passage through the Strait of Hormuz and implement a ceasefire, and U.S.-Iran talks were reported to have reached an agreement mediated by Pakistan. Senator Marco Rubio, who has been watching the situation closely, called the developments "some good signs" but added he didn’t "want to be overly optimistic," a caution that underscored how traders priced a fragile truce alongside persistent uncertainty.
At the same time, investors were parsing corporate news. Nvidia released earnings after the bell on Wednesday and beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. CEO Jensen Huang framed the company’s work as part of a much larger industrial shift, saying, "The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed." The strength in Nvidia’s results and commentary fed optimism about the tech cycle, but the Nasdaq’s only fractional gain highlighted the market’s measured response.
Policy developments added another layer. The Trump administration said on Thursday it would award grants to nine quantum computing companies in exchange for equity stakes, a direct intervention meant to accelerate domestic capability and to tie government support to commercial ownership. That move, coming as investors weighed both a potential thaw with Iran and the implications of far-reaching tech investment, helped frame the market’s cautious tone.
The numbers gave the session its weight: Dow up 0.6% to a record close, S&P 500 up 0.2%, Nasdaq Composite up 0.1%. Oil’s intraday reversal — from morning gains prompted by Tehran to afternoon losses that pushed Brent and WTI down by roughly 2.6% and 2.5% respectively — supplied the day’s volatility. Traders also noted that a SpaceX S-1 filing for an upcoming IPO surfaced Wednesday afternoon, part of a cluster of items investors were sorting through after hours.
The context is straightforward. Markets moved on a mix of potential geopolitical easing — a reported deal that would reopen a vital shipping lane — and fresh evidence that the AI and tech story remains a market driver after Nvidia’s beat. At the same time, breaking policy on quantum computing and an active IPO pipeline kept attention split between long-term structural themes and short-term risk.
The tension is what kept gains modest. A reported diplomatic breakthrough that Iranian media said would secure the Strait of Hormuz is offset by official cautions and rapidly shifting oil prices; a strong Nvidia report and a bullish CEO line did not translate into a full-throated rally for the Nasdaq Composite. Investors were left balancing a narrow set of wins against headline risk — and the day’s trading reflected that tightrope.
The most consequential question now is whether the reported U.S.-Iran agreement holds and meaningfully reduces the oil-market risk that kept prices swinging. If the truce sticks, markets can lean further into earnings and tech narratives. If it fractures, intraday volatility in oil could quickly erase Thursday’s record and modest gains — a reality Senator Rubio’s remark captured when he said there were "some good signs" but that he didn’t "want to be overly optimistic."
