irs tax refund averages jump nearly 11% so far in 2026, IRS data shows
Early tax filers are seeing noticeably larger refunds this year, federal tax data shows. As of Feb. 6, 2026 the average irs tax refund reached $2, 290, an increase of nearly 11% from the same point last year.
Bigger checks tied to new law and filing patterns
Tax administrators say multiple changes to the tax code that took effect for 2025 returns are contributing to the uptick. Forecasters expected larger average refunds after lawmakers approved a high-profile tax package in mid-2025 that extended and revised a range of deductions and credits. One financial-services firm estimated the average payment could rise by roughly $1, 000 per filer, a projection that helps explain the early boost in refund size.
Timing also plays a role. Tax season opened on Jan. 26, 2026, and the earliest returns tend to come from lower-income households that claim refundable credits. As processing continues, wealthier taxpayers with more complex returns—who tend to receive larger refunds—file later. That filing cadence typically pushes the average refund higher as the season progresses and then nudges it slightly downward toward the end of filing.
Who stands to benefit most and what to expect
Analyses of the new tax provisions project the most substantial gains will land with the wealthiest households. Households in the top decile are likely to see the largest percentage increases in refunds, while lower-earning taxpayers will still benefit but to a lesser extent. A separate policy analysis from earlier tax seasons placed the prior-year average refund near $2, 939 for the full filing period, offering a benchmark for how totals might evolve this year.
Officials note that the average reflected in early February doesn’t represent the final pattern for the season. As additional returns are processed—particularly those that include refundable credits aimed at low- and moderate-income families—average refund figures are expected to shift. The agency forecasts that its weekly update at the end of February will show higher refund totals once more of those credits have been accounted for.
Timing, holds and what filers should know
Most taxpayers who file electronically and opt for direct deposit typically receive their refunds within about 21 days after a return is processed. However, certain refundable credits, including the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit, trigger statutory holds that delay refunds until mid-February so the agency can verify income and identity information. Returns that include special forms, such as an injured spouse allocation, can also delay processing.
Through early February the agency had received roughly 22. 4 million returns, down slightly from the roughly 23. 6 million returns filed by the same point last year. The agency continues to post weekly snapshots of filing season activity and expects to provide additional updates after filing concludes on Apr. 15, 2026 (ET). Filers concerned about timing are advised to use the agency’s refund tracking tools and confirm direct deposit information is accurate to minimize delays.
For many taxpayers, the headline is simple: the typical irs tax refund is larger so far this filing season, but individual outcomes will vary depending on income, credits claimed and when a taxpayer files.
