Spanish Government Underestimates Migrant Amnesty; 1.35 Million Applications Leaked

A recent leaked police report has surfaced, revealing that the number of undocumented migrants in Spain eligible for regularization could greatly exceed the government’s estimate. The report, dated January 29, was prepared by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF) for the Policia Nacional.

Significant Discrepancy in Estimates

The Spanish government, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, initially estimated that around 500,000 undocumented migrants would take advantage of the new amnesty program. However, the CNIF suggests the figure could be between one million and 1.35 million.

• Government estimate: 500,000 applications
• CNIF estimate: 1 million to 1.35 million applications

Details from the CNIF Report

The CNIF report indicates that between 750,000 and 1 million undocumented migrants currently residing in Spain are likely to apply for legal status. It also predicts that an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers will seek regularization. The report highlights the leniency of the application requirements as a significant factor influencing these numbers.

Impact on Migration Patterns

Experts warn that the announcement of this regularization process has sparked increased interest in Spain as a destination for migrants. The CNIF states that this perception of Spain as more welcoming towards irregular immigration has led to a projected rise in migrant flows.

Trends in Migration

The report predicts a number of trends in migration to Spain:

• Secondary movements from other Schengen countries, estimated at 200,000 to 250,000 annually.
• An increase in maritime migration, with arrivals by sea expected to rise by 6,000 to 12,000 migrants each year.
• A surge in direct immigration from South America, estimated at 35,000 to 45,000 individuals annually.

Official Response

The Ministry of Social Inclusion has dismissed the CNIF’s assessment, asserting that the establishment of a clear timeline and defined cut-off date for applications eliminates any potential “pull factors” for undocumented migrants. The ministry argues that the regularization process aims to reduce exploitation within the system.

Conclusion

The leaked CNIF report raises significant questions about Spain’s immigration policy and its implications. With estimates suggesting that over 1 million undocumented migrants could apply for regularization, the evolving situation demands close attention from policymakers and the public alike.