Men’s Hockey at the 2026 Olympics: Qualification Round Sets Stage for Quarterfinal Drama

Sunday closed out the preliminary phase of the men’s ice hockey tournament in Milan Cortina and left a clear path into elimination play. Canada, the United States, Slovakia and Finland claimed the top four seeds and earned byes into the quarterfinals. Tuesday’s qualification round will decide which four teams advance to meet them, with early results already favoring the higher seeds but enough variables to keep the bracket interesting.

Tuesday’s qualification matchups and the road to the quarters

The qualification round features four contests that will decide the teams joining the top four seeds in the quarterfinals. The matchups are:

• No. 5 Switzerland 3, No. 12 Italy 0 — the winner will face Finland in the quarterfinals.
• No. 6 Germany 5, No. 11 France 1 — the winner will draw Slovakia in the next round.
• No. 8 Czechia 3, No. 9 Denmark 2 — the victor advances to play Canada.
• No. 7 Sweden vs. No. 10 Latvia — scheduled for 3: 10 p. m. ET; the winner will meet the United States.

With the top quartet already through, each qualification win is effectively a ticket to face one of those rested favorites. That structure leaves teams with an incentive to manage energy and matchups carefully — a win here means one more chance to reset before the medal rounds.

Favorites, odds and players to watch

Bookmakers have tilted the markets heavily toward the higher seeds in the qualification round. The favorites’ money-line prices range widely, reflecting the talent gaps: some favorites sit around the -300 mark on a typical money line, while the most lopsided figures push well past -1000. That makes single-game upsets unlikely but not impossible — especially in nets where a hot goaltender or a shorthanded roster can flip expectations.

Analytical plays have included multi-game parlays built around the four favorites, plus player parlays targeting the tournament’s top scorers. Tim Stützle leads the tournament with four goals, with Timo Meier close behind at three; David Pastrnak and Lucas Raymond remain key finishers for their nations. A group of star forwards — including a few NHL regulars still in the field — are projected to take advantage of the slightly diminished NHL presence in the player pool at this stage.

Beyond goal totals, goaltending will be decisive. Teams with NHL-experienced netminders give themselves margin for error, while those relying on domestic-league keepers will need disciplined defense and opportunistic scoring. Denmark and Latvia, for example, carry enough NHL experience to be dangerous counters despite underdog status, particularly if their goalies stand tall.

Bracket permutations and the bigger picture

With the qualification round complete, the quarterfinal pairings will begin to clarify and long-rumored marquee matchups start to look more or less likely. There remain roughly a dozen plausible gold-medal pairings, including headline showdowns such as Canada vs. the United States and the Nordic rivalry of Finland vs. Sweden. Seedings and the single-elimination format mean a couple of surprising results in Tuesday’s games could drastically reshape the path to the podium.

For now, the tournament moves from group play into a sprint. Teams that survive Tuesday will need to flip quickly from managing round-robin minutes to executing in win-or-go-home hockey. Expect tight checking, special-teams emphasis and a premium on discipline as the field pares down toward the semifinals and medal games.

The qualification round begins Tuesday and will determine who faces the top-four seeds in the quarterfinals. For hockey fans, the next 48 hours should sharpen a bracket that has been wide open until now and set up the high-stakes elimination hockey the Olympics are known for.