Draws and Fades: Final Round Now a Weather Race at Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Organizers moved Sunday’s tee times earlier to get as many groups through before a predicted deterioration in conditions. A two-shot leader will face the morning calm while late-wave players could contend with gusts that reshape scoring — and the leaderboard — at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Schedule shift, forecast in ET and what it means
Tee times have been adjusted to run from 10: 22 a. m. ET to 12: 45 p. m. ET, with threesomes starting off split tees to compress the day. Early-morning players are expected to face winds between 6 and 12 mph and roughly a 25% chance of rain. By noon the probability of precipitation rises to around 35%, with sustained winds moving toward 10–20 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph. Forecasts project conditions will continue to worsen through the afternoon, with the potential for stronger gusts after midday.
That timing creates a clear wave advantage: golfers who get out in the earlier windows will encounter calmer air and lighter rain risk, while the late wave could see a tougher scoring environment — higher winds, heavier rain and lower temperatures in the mid-50s. The course has played slightly under par this week, but if the wind builds the scoring trend could swing to even par or worse for afternoon groups.
Leaderboard: Bhatia clings to a narrow lead; Morikawa surges
Akshay Bhatia holds a two-shot lead after a third-round 4-under. He opened his round with six birdies over his first seven holes, reaching 2-under through nine before the afternoon wind and gusts altered the complexion of the rest of his day; he played his back nine in 2-over to finish 4-under for the round and carry a slim advantage into Sunday.
Collin Morikawa moved into serious contention with a 10-under 62 in Round 3, hitting all 18 greens in regulation — just the third time in his touring career he has done so in a round. Morikawa sits two back and is in position to capture his first title since the 2023 ZOZO Championship, where he closed with a 63 to seal a dominant victory.
Shane Lowry, sitting at 11 under and one shot outside the top 10 on the card, has a profile that fits windy, cooler conditions. Lowry finished runner-up here last season and has historically performed well on days when putting and ball-flight control become premium; he’s within striking distance if Sunday’s forecast favors a tougher test.
Who benefits if the wind turns up?
Statistical analysis of recent rounds in heavy wind points to a small group of players who typically rise to the occasion. Names to watch if the gusts pick up include Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark. These players have shown steady strokes gained in high-wind environments over the last several dozen rounds, which could matter greatly if the afternoon blows in.
Temperature is a related factor: analysis of strokes gained in cooler conditions (mid-40s to mid-50s) highlights similar standouts — players who keep ball speed and spin under control and convert when approach shots are complicated by wind. Those same profiles suggest that a tougher afternoon will separate the field and reward lower, controlled ball flights and steady short games.
The final round is now as much a weather contest as a scorecard duel. With tee times moved earlier and the forecast threatening to stiffen through the day, the champion at Pebble Beach will likely be the player who best matches skill to brief windows of calm — or who thrives when the storm arrives.
