Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi will open the action at UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday inside the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, meeting in a women’s strawweight rematch six years after their first fight.
The betting market makes Souza a heavy favorite at -300, with Carnelossi listed as the +240 underdog. Carnelossi arrives having been submitted in her last outing, while the rematch carries extra weight because Carnelossi finished Souza by late stoppage the first time they met.
Both fighters sit at 3-3 in six UFC bouts. Souza signed with the promotion in 2023 as a former Invicta FC champion; her UFC wins came against Marnic Mann, Yazmin Jauregui and Bruna Brasil, and her losses were to Karine Silva, Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez. Carnelossi has been with the UFC since 2019, with wins over Liang Na, Istela Nunes and Piera Rodriguez and losses to Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez and Talita Alencar.
The rematch replays a small, decisive moment from six years ago: Carnelossi scored a late stoppage over Souza. That result is the clearest piece of evidence that this is not a one-sided mismatch on paper, even if bettors favor Souza by a large margin.
Stylistically, Souza’s best route to victory is well defined: take the fight to the ground and force a grappling match. The match-up preview notes that Souza still struggles with pressure and volume, a weakness that shaped previous losses and that Carnelossi can exploit if the fight stays standing.
Oddsmakers and form diverge. Souza’s -300 price reflects belief in her upside and recent form; Carnelossi’s +240 tag reflects both the risk from her last loss and the payout for backing the underdog. Even so, the prediction here is for Carnelossi to take a decision win. The rationale: she already owns a stoppage victory over Souza, the two arrive with identical UFC records, and Souza’s trouble with pressure and volume gives Carnelossi a clear tactical path to control the fight long enough to win rounds rather than chasing a finish.
That pick is not blind to Carnelossi’s problems — being submitted in her most recent bout is a real red flag — but a decision result minimizes the damage of that recent setback and rewards the fighter who can manage distance and tempo over five rounds. Expect Carnelossi to aim for control and accumulation rather than a risky all-or-nothing finish.
Practical detail for viewers and bettors: the contest opens the card, so it will set the tone for UFC Vegas 118. The clearest in-fight indicator to watch is whether Souza establishes top control and grappling exchanges early. If she does, she follows the textbook path to victory that suits her strengths. If she fails to get the fight to the mat, Carnelossi’s experience in winning the first bout and handling pressure shapes the likely outcome.
The single most consequential unanswered question ahead of Saturday: will Souza commit to grappling and neutralize Carnelossi’s pressure, or will Carnelossi replicate the composure from their first meeting and grind out a decision victory? The answer to that one tactical choice will decide who walks out of the Meta APEX with the early win on UFC Vegas 118.
