March Madness 2026: Michigan, Duke, Arizona Top Early Bracket Seeding Preview
Michigan would be the No. 1 overall seed in a preview released three weeks and a day before the official bracket is announced on Selection Sunday, a release that frames early expectations for march madness 2026. The selection committee’s top 16 seeds put Duke, Arizona and Iowa State on the top line behind Michigan, while committee chair and Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill acknowledged debate around several placements.
March Madness 2026 seed lines
The top four No. 1 seeds, in order, are Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Iowa State. Iowa State edged out UConn for the final No. 1 seed — a placement described as a bit of a surprise and "a lot more debate, " Gill said. Gill also said UConn had been on the top line as of Wednesday, but the Huskies’ home loss to Creighton that night dropped them to the second line.
No. 2 through No. 4 seeds
The No. 2 seeds, in order, are UConn, Houston, Illinois and Purdue. The No. 3 seeds, in order, are Florida, Kansas, Nebraska and Gonzaga. The No. 4 seeds, in order, are Texas Tech, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Virginia. Gill said Alabama and Arkansas were the next closest teams to the top 16.
Regional assignments and matchups
Broken down by region: Michigan is placed in the Midwest Region with Houston, Florida and Virginia. Duke is in the East with Illinois, Kansas and Vanderbilt. Arizona anchors the West with Purdue, Gonzaga and Michigan State. Iowa State leads the South with UConn, Nebraska and Texas Tech. Those regional groupings set up specific later-round possibilities in this preview bracket.
Conference impact and seed math
The committee noted the challenge of keeping conference rivals apart with two leagues as dominant this season as the Big Ten and Big 12. Those two leagues produced eight of the top 10 seeds and 12 of the top 16. The committee also balanced regions by seeding value: the sum totals of the top four seeds in each region cannot differ by more than six from any other region, a constraint that moved Michigan State to the West and Virginia into the Midwest.
Injury and selection debate
The news this week of Texas Tech star JT Toppin’s season-ending knee injury dropped the Red Raiders one line, Gill said. That personnel update was cited among factors that shifted Texas Tech’s placement. The committee’s bracket also put Iowa State and Texas Tech on paths that would meet in the Sweet 16 in this projection.
How this preview compared to mock brackets
The committee’s bracket differed from a recent mock media selection held in Indianapolis, where media participants produced a different top-16 ordering. The mock had Houston as the fourth No. 1 seed, listed Alabama and Arkansas as No. 4 seeds, and left Texas Tech and Vanderbilt out of the top 16. C. J. Moore was among those participating in that mock exercise.
The release was described as the 10th annual February unveil and nearly created a mirror of the biggest scheduled weekend of college basketball: if Houston had been on the top line it would have set up all four projected No. 1 seeds facing each other later Saturday; the preview also noted top two seeds Michigen and Duke were set to meet in Washington, with Arizona playing at Houston.
Photograph credit was given to David Purdy. Separately, a site message noted that a reader’s browser may not be supported and advised downloading an updated browser to ensure the best experience.
Joe Rexrode is identified in the release as a senior writer who covers college football; his bio in the material lists previous work and Olympic coverage and includes the handle @joerexrode.
Selection Sunday remains the date for the official bracket announcement; this three-weeks-out top-16 reveal frames the early picture for march madness 2026 and highlights the debates, injuries and conference clustering that could shape the tournament.
