Anthony Hernandez knocked out by Sean Strickland at UFC Houston; odds, model projections and full card recap
anthony hernandez saw his eight-fight win streak end when Sean Strickland scored a third-round stoppage in the main event at UFC Houston, a result that reshapes the immediate middleweight picture and validates several model projections and pre-fight market moves.
Anthony Hernandez: eight-fight streak halted at the Toyota Center
The night’s main event ended with a flurry of strikes that stopped Anthony Hernandez in Round 3. Hernandez wilted off a knee to the body before absorbing a follow-up flurry that forced the stoppage. The official time of the finish was 2: 33 of Round 3. Hernandez’s run of eight straight wins came to an abrupt close, and the defeat is identified in fight coverage as his third loss stoppage.
Strickland’s return and the path to stoppage
Sean Strickland delivered his first stoppage since 2023, returning after more than a year away from the cage. The former middleweight champion had last competed in early February 2025, when he lost a lackluster effort to then-champion Dricus du Plessis in a failed bid to regain the title. On this night Strickland (listed in coverage with a 30-7 record in the result package) relied on his jab and heavy volume, landing consistent strikes over three rounds while Hernandez offered surprisingly few grappling attempts. Pre-fight listings had shown Strickland as a +220 underdog to Hernandez’s -270 favorite mark, and the fight ended with the underdog earning the stoppage.
Co-main and other knockout highlights
The co-main event produced a quick, decisive finish: Uros Medic (13-3) landed a cracking left hook to the temple that knocked veteran welterweight Geoff Neal (16-8) out just 79 seconds into Round 1. That outcome marked Neal’s second consecutive UFC loss and his fourth loss in his past five bouts. Elsewhere on the card, Melquizael Costa (25-7) continued an upward run by scoring a late first-round spinning back kick to the face of Dan Ige (19-10), a finish that extended Costa’s win streak to six.
Pre-fight lines, model projections and broadcast timing
Pre-fight coverage noted the main card began at 8 p. m. ET from the Toyota Center and pitched a top-five middleweight matchup between the listed No. 3 Sean Strickland and No. 4 Anthony Hernandez. Market pricing ahead of the fight had Hernandez as the sizable favorite at -270 while Strickland was priced at +220. Geoff Neal entered his welterweight bout as a -198 favorite despite a recent run that included three losses in four fights; those listings also referenced Neal as an Austin native looking to win in his home state. The lone heavyweight bout on the slate was listed as Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija with Delija at -118 in the line.
Analytical coverage highlighted a proven computer model from Mike McClure that runs 10, 000 simulations per fight and simulates outcomes round-by-round with dynamic finish probabilities. The model’s backtest across more than 500 fights from 2023–25 showed more than 18 units of profit, a 6. 1% ROI. It had early success in the new broadcast era and had previously hit picks including an upset and an Over in a main event at a recent numbered event. One model projection singled out the co-main as favoring Over 1. 5 rounds with a quoted edge of +4. 2% (a return labeled +130 in the projection), and the model also targeted several underdogs with at least one best bet showing a long-shot return above +500.
Bonuses, payouts and title-picture fallout
Performance bonuses were announced for the night: Sean Strickland, Uros Medic, Melquizael Costa and Jacobe Smith each earned $100, 000 performance bonuses. In the aftermath of the main event, Strickland directed his attention to reigning middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev, saying in a post-fight interview that he wants a shot at the division’s undefeated king and expressing a desire for another title opportunity. Observers noted that a win over Strickland likely would have pushed Hernandez into title contention, making this defeat a significant setback that will require Hernandez to regroup and retool.
What’s next
Immediate next steps for the principals are unclear in the provided context. The card produced several decisive finishes and validated elements of pre-fight market positioning and model projections, while changing trajectories: Strickland restated himself as a contender with a stoppage, Hernandez must rebuild after the loss, and the co-main and undercard finishers bolstered their own momentum. Details about follow-up bookings, recovery timelines, or formal title shots are unclear in the provided context.
