irs tax refund boost promised under 'One Big Beautiful Bill' as filing season unfolds
The administration has been touting significantly larger irs tax refund checks for the 2026 filing season, pointing to a sweeping 2025 tax package that officials say will deliver notable relief for many Americans. Early federal data shows refunds are already running higher than last year for filers processed to date, but experts and the tax agency warn that gains will vary and some returns will still face legal holds and delays.
What the administration is promising
Senior officials and the president have credited the 2025 legislative package known as the One Big Beautiful Bill with provisions that they say will reduce tax burdens across a range of income types. Highlights cited include the elimination of federal tax on tips, exemption of Social Security income for many seniors, exclusion of overtime pay from federal income tax, and new interest-deduction rules for vehicle loans. Administration messaging has suggested some taxpayers could see more than a 20% increase in their refund this year as a result of those changes.
White House statements cast the bill as an extension and permanentization of earlier tax changes that were scheduled to lapse at the end of 2025, framing the measures as broad-based relief designed to boost take-home pay and household liquidity heading into 2026.
What the IRS data and forecasts show
Tax-season data processed by the IRS so far points to larger average refunds among early filers. As of Feb. 6, 2026 ET, the average refund for returns processed was $2, 290, nearly 11% higher than the same point last year. The agency also notes that most electronically filed returns with direct deposit are processed in fewer than 21 days after the return is accepted.
Analysts cautioned that refund growth will not be uniform. Higher-income households, which file later and have more complex returns, are expected to capture a disproportionate share of the largest increases. Forecasts from tax and investment analysts suggest the average refund could rise by several hundred to roughly a thousand dollars for many filers over last year, but those estimates vary by methodology and taxpayer profile.
Timing patterns also matter. The average refund amount typically starts modestly in early filings, peaks in mid-February, and then softens through April as different cohorts of taxpayers complete returns. Lower-income taxpayers who claim refundable credits tend to file earlier; wealthier filers generally take longer to finalize more complicated returns.
Who may see delays and why
Certain refundable credits trigger statutory holds that delay refunds until the agency can verify income and identity. Returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit are subject to a refund delay required by federal law, with many of those refunds held until mid-February. The agency also places holds on returns that include Form 8379, the Injured Spouse Allocation, when a joint refund may be offset for debts such as past-due federal or state obligations, child support, or student loans.
Taxpayers who file electronically and choose direct deposit without claiming refundable credits or other complicating factors are the most likely to receive refunds within the typical processing window. Those with more complex filings, identity-verification issues, or refundable credits should expect longer waits and are encouraged to use the IRS refund-status tool for updates.
Filing deadlines remain unchanged: most individual 2025 federal returns are due April 15, 2026 ET. The agency continues to process returns weekly through the filing season and will publish periodic updates on volumes and refund totals as the season progresses.
Bottom line: the new tax law is already showing up in larger refunds for many early filers, but the distribution and timing of those gains will be uneven. Taxpayers with claims that trigger statutory verification will still face delay regardless of overall refund-size headlines.
