weather tomorrow: Near-record warmth then storms with tornado risk across the Ohio Valley
Residents across the Ohio Valley should brace for a sharp turn in conditions: unseasonably warm air will raise highs into the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday, but a front moving through Thursday afternoon and evening could trigger strong to severe storms with damaging wind and a limited tornado threat. The rapid swing from springlike warmth to late-winter chill will arrive on a tight timeline, with the most significant storm risk concentrated in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Warmth builds; record readings already falling in parts of Indiana
Warmer-than-normal southerly winds will push temperatures into the mid- to upper-60s across the region. In Indianapolis, a daily high for Feb. 18 was surpassed, with the temperature climbing into the upper 60s and reaching 70 degrees by midafternoon on Wednesday, Feb. 18. Cincinnati is forecast to see similar values, with Wednesday’s high near 68 to 69 degrees and Thursday anticipated to top out near 69 degrees — close to record-high lows for Feb. 18 in some locations.
Wednesday morning begins with showers in places, then skies should gradually clear through the late morning and early afternoon. Southwest winds will gust into the mid-20s at times. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday will be unusually mild, with lows holding in the upper 40s to low 50s, setting the stage for the unstable atmosphere ahead of the frontal passage.
Severe threat arrives Thursday afternoon and evening
A warm front and an approaching cold front will come together Thursday, creating an environment conducive to organized thunderstorms. Forecast guidance places the timing of the main severe window between about 1: 00 p. m. and 7: 00 p. m. ET, with the peak threat in the late afternoon into early evening.
Forecasters highlight damaging straight-line winds as the primary hazard, with small hail possible and a limited but notable risk for a few tornadoes, especially where instability and low-level wind shear align. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a few tenths of an inch to perhaps a half-inch in heavier cells, though localized heavier totals could occur inside stronger thunderstorms.
Thursday’s rain and thunder threat will persist into the early overnight hours for some areas. Expect a high near 69 degrees, a southwest wind supplying warm, moist air, and an 80% chance of precipitation in many locales during the day and evening.
Quick cooldown and weekend outlook
A vigorous cold front will sweep east on Friday, ushering in much cooler air. Friday’s high will likely fall back into the 40s with brisk northwest winds behind the front. Overnight lows Friday into the weekend will drop toward the 30s and 20s in many spots, with Saturday largely sunnier and cooler and Sunday staying mostly cloudy with highs struggling in the upper 30s to around 40.
Given the fast timing from warmth to cold, communities should prepare for rapidly changing conditions: secure outdoor items before Thursday afternoon, plan for disruptive winds and lightning if travel is necessary during the late-afternoon storm window, and monitor local forecasts on Thursday for any adjustments to the expected timing and threat level.
Weather tomorrow will be a study in contrasts — brief, record-approaching warmth followed by a swift return to seasonable or even colder conditions by the weekend.
