marquette basketball faces St. John’s as stat guru gives Red Storm an edge
St. John's will try to extend its winning streak to 12 when it visits Fiserv Forum to face Marquette basketball on Wednesday, February 18, 2026 at 9: 00 PM ET. The game pits a surging Red Storm (20-5, 13-1) that leans heavily on advanced analytics against a Golden Eagles club (9-17, 4-11) whose offense has markedly improved since an earlier January loss.
Stat guru Jason Fortin: the numbers behind St. John’s rise
One of the defining elements of St. John's recent run is the presence of Jason Fortin, a statistical analyst who works closely with the coaching staff. Fortin attends practices and games, tracks play-by-play tendencies and sends several analytic briefings each day to help shape game plans. Head coach Rick Pitino has described Fortin as a major contributor and says he leans on the data when preparing for opponents and scouting player habits.
Fortin developed a proprietary mathematical approach to measure player performance and trends after a career in financial modeling. That work now feeds into lineup decisions, opponent scouting and the metrics the staff watches for NCAA Tournament selection. Assistants praise the scope of his analysis, and Fortin himself characterizes his role as offering a 30, 000-foot view of the numbers while coaches and players handle execution on the floor.
Marquette’s offensive turnaround and matchup concerns
Marquette basketball looks like a different team than the one that lost by 24 in New York on Jan. 13. Over the eight games since that meeting, the Golden Eagles’ offense jumped from roughly 1. 03 points per possession (a subpar national mark) to about 1. 14 points per possession, elevating them into the top 50 nationally in that span. Improved shot selection and hot streaks from key players have driven the change.
Royce Parham has been a standout in that stretch, converting an exceptional 71% of his two-point attempts on about 6. 4 twos per game and hitting 37% on 3. 4 three-point attempts. Those efficiencies give Marquette a more reliable interior and midrange threat than it showed in January. However, the Golden Eagles remain thin in some areas: veteran Sean Jones has missed the last dozen games with a foot issue, and the team was without Ben Gold in the January meeting — a player whose return would bolster rim protection and rebounding.
Keys for Wednesday and what to watch
Tempo and interior defense will likely decide the outcome. St. John's has exploited Marquette inside before, shooting highly efficient two-point percentages and racking up offensive rebounds; containing that threat will be critical for the Golden Eagles. If Ben Gold is available and effective, he could change the inside matchup and make it harder for the Red Storm to finish at the rim.
For St. John's, the analytical edge comes into play by identifying opponent tendencies and nudging in-game adjustments. Coaches say Fortin's work highlights patterns such as preferred driving directions and pull-up frequencies, which can inform defensive assignments and switch decisions late in possessions. Discipline on the perimeter to limit second-chance points and smart rotations to contest midrange pull-ups will be essential.
Watch for possession-level battles and how each staff uses small advantages. Marquette’s newfound offensive rhythm can shorten the margin quickly, but St. John's depth, recent form and analytic preparation make the Red Storm the clearer favorite entering tipoff at Fiserv Forum. The matchup promises to be a test of trend-versus-trend: a team on a long winning streak aided by numbers-driven scouting versus an offense that has begun to click at the right time.
