irs tax refund outlook: Trump touts possible 20% returns as early IRS data shows bigger checks
President Donald Trump has predicted substantially larger irs tax refund checks this filing season, linking the gains to his signature One Big Beautiful Bill. Early government data shows average refunds are already higher than last year, but experts caution the benefits will not be distributed evenly across all income groups and some refunds will still face statutory delays.
What the president says and what the numbers show
In a social media post, the president said some taxpayers could see more than 20% of their taxes returned, pointing to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill that eliminate federal taxes on tips, social security benefits for seniors and overtime pay, while expanding interest deductions on car loans and other changes. He framed the larger refunds as proof the legislation is delivering savings for households.
Early-season data from the Internal Revenue Service, with figures current as of Feb. 6, 2026 (ET), shows average refunds are higher than at the same point last year. The IRS has processed millions of returns since tax season opened on Jan. 26, 2026 (ET), and the average refund in those filings has climbed—reflecting both the new law's provisions and filing patterns among different income groups.
Who stands to gain—and who may not
Analysts caution the largest gains are likely concentrated among higher-income households. Forecasters estimate that the average check could rise significantly, with one financial services firm projecting roughly a $1, 000 increase per filer on average. Investment analysis suggests the top 10% of households will capture the biggest dollar increases, while lower-earning taxpayers will see smaller, though still meaningful, improvements.
Part of this dynamic comes from timing: lower-income taxpayers tend to file earlier in the season, so initial averages skew toward smaller refunds; wealthier filers with more complex returns and additional deductions often file later, which tends to push average refund figures higher as the season progresses.
Timing, delays and what filers should expect
Tax season officially began on Jan. 26, 2026 (ET), and the IRS continues to process returns at scale. For those who file electronically and select direct deposit, most refunds are being issued within about three weeks after the return is processed. The statutory filing deadline this year is April 15, 2026 (ET).
Certain credits will trigger mandatory hold periods that delay refunds. Returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit remain subject to an earlier law that requires the IRS to hold those refunds until mid-February to allow the agency to verify income and identity. Returns including an Injured Spouse Allocation form can also see delays while the agency resolves allocation issues tied to past-due federal debts or other offsets.
Filers worried about timing should use the IRS's electronic refund-status tools and ensure direct-deposit information is accurate. Electronic filing typically yields the quickest turnaround; paper filers can expect substantially longer waits.
The next weeks of processing are likely to change the average-refund picture as more returns from higher-income households are received and additional credits are processed. Taxpayers and advisers will be watching weekly updates from the agency and adjusting expectations as the season unfolds.
