irs tax refund averages nearly 11% higher so far this year, IRS data shows
Early filers are seeing larger checks this season: IRS figures released for early February show the average irs tax refund has climbed nearly 11% compared with the same point last year. Tax professionals and forecasters say law changes and the mix of who files early are shaping the initial numbers, while the agency expects averages to shift as more returns are processed.
What the early data show
As of Feb. 6, 2026 ET the average refund stood at $2, 290, up from the prior year. The IRS had processed roughly 22. 4 million returns by early February, slightly fewer than the 23. 6 million returns handled at the same time last year. The filing season officially opened on Jan. 26, 2026 ET, and most electronically filed returns with direct deposit are typically paid within about 21 days after processing.
Officials expect reported averages to rise in late February, particularly when the agency posts an update on Feb. 27, 2026 ET. That update will include more refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit—refundable benefits for low- and moderate-income working families—which are subject to legally required holds until mid-February to allow for additional verification.
Why refunds are larger and who benefits most
Several factors are pushing average refunds higher this season. Major tax-law changes enacted in mid-2025 altered deductions and credits that flow through 2025 returns filed in 2026, and many forecasters expected those provisions to boost average payments. Some analysts projected average refunds could rise by roughly $1, 000 per filer versus prior expectations, though gains are not evenly distributed.
Data and tax-policy analysis indicate the largest benefits are likely to accrue to higher-income households—the top 10%—which tend to see the biggest dollar changes from complex tax provisions. Lower-earning taxpayers will generally see gains as well, but the increase in average refund amounts is smaller for many of those households. Timing also matters: lower-income filers often submit returns earlier, so early-season averages can understate what will occur when wealthier taxpayers, who typically file later because of more complex returns, enter the dataset.
Political leaders have highlighted the prospect of substantially larger refunds, with some public statements suggesting increases of 20% or more for some taxpayers. Tax experts caution that headline percentages mask distributional effects: a bigger percentage increase for a high-income household produces a much larger dollar swing than the same percentage for a low-income household.
Practical takeaways for filers
Taxpayers claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit should expect refund timing to reflect the mid-February verification hold; this can delay receipt even if the return was filed early. Returns that require extra forms—such as injured spouse allocations or those with complex schedules—also tend to take longer to process.
For those awaiting refunds, filing electronically and opting for direct deposit remains the fastest route; most straightforward electronic returns are completed in under three weeks once processed. The average refund historically peaks in mid-February and often eases slightly as the season progresses and a broader cross-section of taxpayers completes their filings. The April 15, 2026 ET deadline remains the final day for most filers to submit 2025 federal returns.
IRS weekly data updates will continue through the peak of filing season, offering a rolling picture of how averages and totals change as additional returns and refundable credits are processed.
