Bills Battle Broncos: DVOA Matchup Preview
The upcoming playoff matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills presents an intriguing clash of teams vying for a place in the next round. Despite securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a strong 14-3 record, the Broncos face an interesting challenge as betting lines fluctuate. Some sportsbooks favor the Bills, who hold a 13-5 record, making this game a focal point for fans and analysts alike.
Bills vs. Broncos: DVOA Matchup Overview
When we analyze the teams using DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Broncos slightly edge out the Bills. Their full-season DVOA is 14.4%, ranking them 7th, compared to the Bills’ 12.5% DVOA, ranked 8th. However, the Bills show a stronger weighted DVOA of 14.0% (9th), against the Broncos’ 18.5% (6th).
Team Statistics
| Team | DVOA | WEI DVOA | Offense DVOA | Defense DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12.5% (8) | 14.0% (9) | 15.0% (4) | 3.2% (20) |
| Denver Broncos | 14.4% (7) | 18.5% (6) | -10.4% (5) | 3.6% (15) |
Offensive Matchup: Bills vs. Broncos
The Broncos face a solid Bills offense, currently ranked 4th, but have been inconsistent in recent weeks. Analysis indicates that the Bills’ pass offense has decreased, dropping from 6th to 13th since Week 10. In contrast, the Broncos’ defense remains relatively strong against the pass, ranked within the top rankings in several critical metrics.
Key Trends
- Broncos’ pass defense ranks 8th against passes to the left.
- Bills’ run game effectiveness has seen declines in efficiency.
- Broncos excel in man coverage; Bills struggle against it.
Defensive Strategies
The Bills show strength in coverage but have struggled with their pass rush, sitting 27th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Their inability to apply consistent pressure puts them at a disadvantage against a Broncos offensive line that ranks 8th in pass block win rate.
Statistical Insights
- Broncos only allow 3.4 yards per carry against outside zone runs.
- Bills defense allows 5.7 yards per carry against man blocking schemes.
- Broncos’ tackling struggles lead to a high avoided tackle rate for opponents.
Special Teams Overview
On special teams, the Bills boast an advantage in kick returns, thanks to the prowess of Ray Davis. Meanwhile, the Broncos hold a slight edge in punt returns with Marvin Mims Jr.
This matchup is set to be a tightly contested game, with key strategies surrounding run and pass offense balancing against each team’s unique strengths and weaknesses. As the playoffs approach, both teams will aim to leverage these insights to secure their advancement in the postseason.
