SpaceX shares climbed 14.3% on Tuesday to $220, a more than 62% gain above the $135 IPO price, briefly lifting the company's market capitalization to roughly $2.85 trillion and past Amazon and close to Microsoft.
By 10:07 a.m. ET more than $23.1 billion worth of SpaceX shares had exchanged hands, an unusually heavy turnover for a newly listed name; the surge put SpaceX ahead of Amazon’s $2.64 trillion valuation and briefly undercut Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion mark on the leaderboard of U.S. companies.
The one-day move arrived as SpaceX’s options began trading on June 16, offering standard monthly expirations and strikes ranging from $25 to $380 — a launch that options traders and market makers flagged as a source of additional trading pressure. Brent Kochuba warned: "Today the SPCX options launch, offering standard monthly expiration and strikes ranging from $25 to $380. If call demand is heavy, dealers might be forced to buy SPCX into this low-liquidity situation."
The price pop followed a blockbuster market debut and a Monday announcement that underwriters had exercised the greenshoe option, boosting IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion from $75 billion. SpaceX also disclosed plans to acquire software company Anysphere for $60 billion, and the company’s most recent full-year results showed $18.67 billion in sales and a $4.94 billion net loss after merging with xAI.
Market structure factors have been front-and-center: SpaceX’s limited float and the mechanical demand from index funds were cited repeatedly by strategists as drivers of near-term volatility. Zephirin Group cautioned: "While index inclusion alone is typically insufficient to drive sustained repricing, we see the combination of passive flows, momentum, and limited float driving upside beyond historical index-addition moves."
That mix prompted sharp disagreement over whether the rally reflects durable value or momentum chasing. Ipek Ozkardeskaya put the case bluntly: "We can say with certainty that this valuation makes absolutely no sense today. People are buying SpaceX in the expectation that others will buy too and push the price higher - that's speculation."
Practical market mechanics add to the picture. SpaceX is set for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, with FTSE Russell and MSCI slated to add the stock to their indexes on June 26 and June 29, respectively. That timetable means a predictable wave of passive-fund demand could hit the market within two weeks, even as much of the company’s new stock remains concentrated among early holders.
Kochuba flagged the timing link to index flows: "Starting next week we may see index demand increase, with more shares not slated to be made available for 1-2 months." Combined with thin available supply, dealers said, that could force larger mechanical purchases to hedge options exposure and fill passive allocations — amplifying short-term price moves.
The near-term question for investors is explicit: how much further can SpaceX shares move before the limited float and upcoming index inclusions are fully reflected in price? The clearest answer in the record is procedural — FTSE Russell adds SpaceX on June 26 and MSCI on June 29 — and the market mechanisms in place make further upside likely in the short run. But the gap between that likely demand and the company's operating figures — $18.67 billion in sales and a $4.94 billion loss last year — leaves the valuation exposed to rapid reversals if momentum stalls.
For traders and index managers, the immediate market is now a liquidity puzzle: heavy volume, fresh options flows and scheduled passive buying can push prices higher quickly; for investors seeking a valuation anchor, the available evidence points to a speculative trade rather than an earnings-based re-rating.
