Supercomputer Forecasts Premier League Standings as Man City Seizes Arsenal’s Downfall
Alarms rang across north London after Arsenal lost 2-1 to Bournemouth on Saturday. It was their third defeat in four matches across all competitions.
Manchester City responded on Sunday with a 3-0 win at Chelsea. The result cut Arsenal’s lead to six points. City also hold a game in hand and will host Arsenal next weekend.
Liverpool beat Fulham 2-0 to strengthen their hold on fifth place. Tottenham slipped to a 1-0 loss at Sunderland and now face growing relegation concerns.
Opta supercomputer outlook
Opta released updated projections for the 2025–26 season this weekend. A supercomputer forecast of the Premier League standings shows Man City closing fast, raising talk of Arsenal’s downfall.
The model still favours Arsenal to finish top. They sit on 70 points now and are projected to end on 82.09 points. Their title probability is 87.26%, down from about 97% before the international break.
Manchester City are forecast to finish on 76.35 points. Their title chances rose to 12.74% after the Chelsea win.
Predicted top positions and European places
- 1. Arsenal — Current: 70 points. Expected: 82.09. Title chance: 87.26%.
- 2. Manchester City — Current: 64 points. Expected: 76.35. Title chance: 12.74%.
- 3. Manchester United — Current: 55 points. Expected: 66.00. Champions League chance: 96.30%.
- 4. Aston Villa — Current: 55 points. Expected: 64.85. Champions League chance: 94.40%.
- 5. Liverpool — Current: 52 points. Expected: 61.18. Champions League chance: 68.99%.
- 6. Chelsea — Current: 48 points. Expected: 57.00. Champions League chance: 19.48%.
- 7. Brighton — Current: 46 points. Expected: 55.31. Champions League chance: 6.61%.
- 8. Everton — Current: 47 points. Expected: 55.22. Champions League chance: 6.15%.
United’s revival under Michael Carrick has them well placed for a top-three finish. Villa remain strong under Unai Emery. Liverpool are projected to fall well short of last season’s winning total of 84 points.
Relegation picture
- 15. Leeds — Current: 33 points. Expected: 41.87. Relegation chance: 8.15%.
- 16. Nottingham Forest — Current: 33 points. Expected: 40.75. Relegation chance: 10.23%.
- 17. West Ham — Current: 32 points. Expected: 38.44. Relegation chance: 35.56%.
- 18. Tottenham Hotspur — Current: 30 points. Expected: 37.23. Relegation chance: 46.06%.
- 19. Burnley — Current: 20 points. Expected: 25.02. Relegation chance: 100%.
- 20. Wolverhampton Wanderers — Current: 17 points. Expected: 23.89. Relegation chance: 100%.
Leeds and Forest are projected to survive but must arrest poor runs. West Ham’s recent draws with Manchester United and Manchester City, plus a 4-0 win over Wolves, have lifted their prospects.
Tottenham have taken just three points from their last 12 league games. Roberto De Zerbi’s arrival has not yet halted the decline. Burnley and Wolves are essentially certain to drop to the Championship.
What to watch next
The next round of fixtures can materially change these projections. City hosting Arsenal next weekend is especially pivotal. A City victory, combined with use of a game in hand, could tighten the title race dramatically.
Filmogaz.com will monitor results and updated forecasts as the season reaches its climax.
