Tornado Threat Returns to Plains, Forecasted to Persist Beyond Weekend

A multiday severe weather threat will impact parts of the Plains from the weekend into early next week. Tornado threat returns to the Plains. It is forecasted to persist beyond the weekend.

Overview of Hazards

Forecasters expect damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes across the region. Heavy rain could also produce localized flash flooding.

Timing and Areas of Concern

Saturday

Severe risk peaks across western Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle. A dryline may trigger storms near Lubbock and Amarillo. Those storms could bring large hail and gusty winds.

Sunday

Gulf moisture will surge north Saturday night and boost instability on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center warns a “substantial severe threat would be possible,” including “supercells.” Cities most at risk include Dallas, Austin and Oklahoma City.

Monday

Warm, moist air will spread farther north on Monday. The severe threat could stretch from Texas to southern Wisconsin. Dallas, Oklahoma City, Kansas City and Des Moines are among cities to watch.

Tuesday

A western trough is expected to shift east and produce another round of storms. The area of concern would extend from Texas into southern Illinois. Forecasts for Tuesday carry the most uncertainty. Dallas, St. Louis and Little Rock should stay alert.

Flash Flooding Risk

Intense rain rates could produce flash flooding in parts of the Southern Plains. Some locations may receive 24-hour totals near or over 2 inches. Flooding would be most likely where the strongest storms occur.

Why the Pattern Is Persistent

A broad high pressure system over the eastern United States is funneling Gulf moisture north. A slow-moving trough over the West is pivoting toward the Central Plains. The combination allows repeated rounds of severe weather over the same areas.

Expert Note

Rob Shackelford, a meteorologist and climate scientist at Filmogaz.com, says the slow trough and persistent moisture favor multiday severe events. He holds undergraduate and master’s degrees in meteorology from the University of Georgia.

• Primary threats: damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, flash flooding.
• Key cities to monitor: Lubbock, Amarillo, Dallas, Austin, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Des Moines, St. Louis, Little Rock.
• Rainfall: pockets may exceed 2 inches in 24 hours.