Anthony Hernandez Favored as UFC Houston Main Card Delivers Early Knockout and Mixed Decisions

anthony hernandez entered Saturday's middleweight main event at the Toyota Center in Houston as the betting favorite, while the card produced an early, decisive co‑main finish that reshaped the night's narrative. With a top‑five pairing and a six‑fight main card beginning at 8 p. m. ET, the evening carried implications for title contention and wagering ahead of the unresolved headliner.

Anthony Hernandez listed as -270 favorite in middleweight showdown

The main event matched No. 3 Sean Strickland (29-7) against No. 4 Anthony Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC) in a five‑round bout billed with potential title ramifications. Hernandez entered the fight as the -270 favorite while Strickland was the +220 underdog. The matchup paired a 34‑year‑old Strickland — returning after more than a year out following a loss to Dricus du Plessis in early February 2025 — against a 32‑year‑old California native riding recent momentum. Hernandez's run since 2021 includes eight consecutive UFC wins and six finishes, with stoppages over Roman Dolidze, Michel Pereira and Roman Kopylov, factors that help explain the market tilt toward him. What makes this notable is the contrast in recent activity: Strickland has four wins in his past six bouts and six of his seven most recent UFC victories came by decision, while anthony hernandez has built his edge on finishes and consistent activity.

Uros Medic knockout at 1: 19 of R1 upends co‑main expectations

The co‑main welterweight bout dramatically altered the card's arc when Uros Medic (12-3) defeated Geoff Neal (16-7) by knockout from a punch at 1: 19 of the first round. Neal entered the night as a -198 favorite and as an Austin native pursuing a win in his home state; the quick finish removed him early from contention and handed Medic a decisive victory. The outcome also undercut model projections that favored the fight extending past the early frame.

Toyota Center schedule and UFC Fight Night 267 timing

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez took place at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, with preliminary action slated to start at 5 p. m. ET and the main card beginning at 8 p. m. ET on the streaming platform Paramount+, free for subscribers. The event was one of the weekend's showcases, included in listings for the February 21 showcase and identified as UFC Fight Night 267, with six fights on the main card.

Mike McClure's model ran 10, 000 simulations per fight and favored extended rounds

Mike McClure's MMA model produced specific projections ahead of the card, running 10, 000 simulations for every fight and modeling round‑by‑round dynamics, finish timing and accumulating damage that raises finish likelihood in later frames. The model was backtested on more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and posted more than 18 units of profit, a 6. 1% ROI, and has previous hits including Justin Gaethe to win outright at +195 and selecting the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324. One of the model's top recommendations for this card was Over 1. 5 rounds (+130) in Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic, an angle supported by McClure's observation that defensive metrics and pacing profiles suggested more measured early exchanges and a higher chance the fight would extend—an outlook upended by Medic's first‑round knockout.

Undercard produced a string of finishes and close decisions

The night’s undercard returned a mix of stoppages and scorecard verdicts: Melquizael Costa defeated Dan Ige by TKO from a spinning back kick and punches at 4: 56 of round one; Jacobe Smith knocked out Josiah Harrell with elbows and punches at 3: 01 of round one; and Jocelyne Edwards submitted Nora Cornolle with a rear‑naked choke at 2: 44 of round two. On the judges' scorecards, Serghei Spivac beat Ante Delija by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); Michel Pereira edged Zachary Reese by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28); Carlos Leal won a unanimous decision over Chidi Njokuani (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); Alibi Idiris defeated Ode Osbourne by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27); Aldin Coria took a unanimous 30-27 verdict over Luis Gurule; Punahele Soriano beat Ramiz Brahimaj by split decision (29-28 All); and Jean‑Paul Lebosnoyani prevailed over Phil Rowe by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). The main event listing — Middleweight: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez — remained in the schedule, with the result unclear in the provided context.

The mix of quick finishes, close scorecards and contrasting model projections left the event with immediate betting and ranking implications, especially given Hernandez's favorite status and the co‑main's abrupt reversal of expectations.