Weather tomorrow: Near-record warmth gives way to severe storm risk across Ohio Valley
Unseasonably warm conditions will linger through Wednesday and Thursday, with some sites flirting with record readings. The warmth will be short-lived: a frontal system is expected to sweep through Thursday afternoon and evening (Feb. 19, ET), bringing a heightened chance for thunderstorms that could include damaging winds and a few tornadoes in parts of the region.
Warm surge and record readings Wednesday
Mild southwest winds have pushed daytime highs well above normal. Cities across the region climbed into the mid- to upper-60s Wednesday, and one inland location topped out at 70 degrees by midafternoon, eclipsing a long-standing daily high. Expect lingering morning rain in spots, then gradual clearing through the day as highs reach the upper 60s in many locations. Winds from the southwest will gust at times, with gusts into the mid-20s (mph) possible during the afternoon.
Wednesday night will stay relatively mild, with lows holding in the upper 40s to low 50s as cloud cover increases ahead of the next front. The warm pocket will prime the atmosphere for Thursday’s storms by boosting humidity and instability during the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorm and tornado potential Thursday late day
A warm front is forecast to move through Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for a sharper round of rain and thunderstorms after about 4 p. m. The greatest uncertainty is storm intensity and exact placement, but forecasters highlight a notable risk for severe weather during the late-afternoon and early-evening window. Expect the first storms to form in the afternoon and an increased threat between roughly 1 and 7 p. m. ET in some areas.
Main threats from Thursday’s convection will be damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes, with small hail possible in stronger cells. Precipitation probabilities are high; most locations can expect measurable rain, with typical rainfall amounts around a few tenths of an inch and higher downpours within thunderstorms. Overnight into early Friday, rain and storms may linger briefly before a cold front pushes east and clears the air.
Cooler conditions and weekend outlook
A cold front moving in Friday will knock daytime readings back into the 40s and bring a brisk feel to the region. Friday night into the weekend will be cooler and drier, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s on Friday and falling into the 30s by Sunday. There is a chance of mixed precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday in some spots as colder air filters in, but the primary story will be the sharp temperature drop after the storm system departs.
Residents should monitor local forecasts Thursday for evolving storm timings and impacts. Be prepared to move to safe shelter if severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are issued during the late-afternoon and evening hours (Feb. 19, ET).
