weather tomorrow: Near-record warmth, then a late-day storm threat for the Midwest
Unseasonably warm air will hang over parts of the Ohio Valley through Thursday before a potent frontal system triggers a line of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind and a few tornadoes. Meteorologists say the most dangerous period for severe weather looks to be late Thursday afternoon into the evening, with temperatures falling rapidly behind the front Friday.
Warm Wednesday and Thursday, with records on the line
Warm southwest winds are expected to push highs into the upper 60s across the region. Wednesday will start with morning showers for some locations, then clearing through the midmorning into the afternoon as highs near the upper 60s. Overnight lows Wednesday night will remain mild, with many spots staying in the upper 40s to low 50s.
One city already pushed well above typical February readings: temperatures climbed into the upper 60s and reached 70°F on Feb. 18, breaking a decades-old daily high benchmark. Thursday looks similarly warm, with highs near 66–69°F ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Some reporting stations are even in the running to log record-high low temperatures for Feb. 18.
Thursday’s severe-threat window: late afternoon into evening
A warm front will lift through the region Thursday afternoon and be followed by a stronger cold front later in the day. That setup will prime the atmosphere for widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms after about 4 p. m. ET, and forecasters highlight a window of heightened risk roughly between 1 p. m. and 7 p. m. ET in many areas.
Forecast guidance places much of the Tri-State area under a slight risk for severe weather, with the highest concentrations of concern east of Interstate 57 and near and north of Interstate 64. The primary threats will be damaging straight-line wind gusts and a few tornadoes, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. Rainfall amounts are expected to average a few tenths of an inch, with locally higher totals inside any thunderstorm cores.
Communities along the projected corridor should prepare for a rapid deterioration in conditions Thursday evening: strong winds, heavy rain, and the possibility of tornadoes could produce localized damage. Power outages and downed trees are possible in the strongest storms. The severe threat will be short-lived for most locations as the front moves east and colder air arrives.
Cooler through the weekend, brief precipitation chances
A reinforcing cold front will sweep through Friday, dropping highs back into the 40s and ushering in more seasonal temperatures for the weekend. Friday night into Saturday will trend drier and cooler, with highs near the upper 40s Saturday and a low around 30 Saturday night. There is a slight chance of rain changing to snow Saturday night into Sunday in some inland spots as colder air filters in; models show limited moisture, so any mixed precipitation is expected to be light.
Travelers and outdoor event planners should watch the evolving forecast Thursday afternoon and evening, and have a plan to shelter quickly if severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are issued. For now, the immediate headline is clear: enjoy the unseasonable warmth, but be ready for a sharp turn to stormy, colder weather late Thursday and into Friday.
