2026 winter olympics women's single skating free skating — Nakai's surprise lead sets up Thursday showdown

Seventeen-year-old Ami Nakai stunned the field with a career-best short program on Tuesday night (ET), vaulting into the lead and transforming the medal picture ahead of the 2026 winter olympics women's single skating free skating on Thursday (ET). Her clean, high-energy performance — highlighted by a triple Axel — has intensified a competition already rich with storylines: a retiring champion chasing a final Olympic crown, a comeback world champion from the United States, and the real possibility of a historic podium for Japan.

Nakai's breakout: youth and technical daring

Nakai arrived at these Games as a relative newcomer to the senior circuit and, because of the ISU's raised minimum age, one of the youngest skaters in contention. Starting 18th out of 29 competitors, she was not the headline name coming into the short program, but a flawless outing changed that. Opening with a triple Axel and following with a triple Lutz–triple toe loop combination and a clean triple loop, she posted a season-best score that left the arena buzzing.

Her smile and animated finishing pose reflected more than relief; they signaled momentum. Skaters who deliver technically difficult elements under Olympic pressure often carry that confidence into the free skate, and Nakai has placed herself squarely in that position. Her lower world ranking meant an earlier starting position, but her performance echoed a pattern seen across the event this week: the middle of the running order can still produce frontrunners.

Sakamoto, Liu and Japan's golden opportunity

Kaori Sakamoto, the three-time world champion who has dominated the sport since 2022, sits close behind Nakai after a poised short program set to Time to Say Goodbye. At 25, Sakamoto has announced this will be her final season, and the free skate will likely be her last Olympic performance. That retirement narrative adds emotional weight to Thursday’s contest: she has the experience and the arsenal of high-scoring elements to challenge for gold one more time.

The United States remains in medal contention, led by Alysa Liu, who returned to form after a hiatus and delivered a strong short program featuring difficult jumps. If Liu skates cleanly in the free program, she could break a long American drought in this discipline. But Japan’s depth is formidable. With other Japanese skaters also placed near the top, a podium sweep is no longer speculative: it is a tangible scenario that would cap a dominant Olympic run for the host nation in figure skating.

Japan's momentum has been building across the skating events: their entries have found the podium repeatedly, and that collective confidence fuels individual contenders. For Sakamoto, Nakai and their teammates, the free skate represents both chance and legacy.

Key storylines to watch in the free skate (Thursday, ET)

The free skate will be a test of endurance, technical ambition and consistency. Expect judges to reward difficulty — combinations, Axels and quads where attempted — but errors will be costly. Nakai must translate the short's energy into a longer, composed program; nerves and stamina will be decisive for a skater so young in a pressure-packed final.

Sakamoto's challenge is to skate with the command that brought her three straight world titles, while balancing the emotion of a farewell season. Liu's objective is simple: a clean, powerful free skate that leans on her jump content and performance maturity to close the gap on Japan's leaders.

Beyond the top three, several skaters could upset the standings with one inspired performance. The free skate will not only decide medals but could rewrite careers: an Olympic podium changes trajectories, and the next night of competition promises both drama and technical fireworks. Expect coverage and live results on Thursday (ET) as the women's event reaches its climax.