irs shutdown risk: What a federal shutdown could mean for your tax refund and how to avoid delays

As the 2026 filing season approaches, many taxpayers are watching both new tax law changes and the possibility of a partial federal shutdown. While the Internal Revenue Service’s automated systems are still running, staffing constraints and mandatory manual verifications could lengthen refund times for some filers.

How the IRS will operate during a shutdown

Electronic filing with direct deposit and error-free returns typically move through the system within the standard 21-day window. That automated processing remains available even if parts of the federal government are shut down. However, returns that require human review are the area most likely to see delays.

When shutdown-related staffing reductions occur, returns flagged for manual checks can remain in limbo longer than usual. Those delays are most common when the filing triggers verification routines that cannot be fully automated — even during normal operations, those cases take extra time.

Which refunds are most likely to be delayed

Certain refundable credits and special forms nearly always require extra verification before refunds are released. Two of the most prominent examples are the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC). Federal law already requires the IRS to hold refunds claiming these credits until mid-February 2026 to allow time for income and identity checks, and reduced staffing can stretch those hold times further.

Other situations that can prompt manual review include filing Form 8379 for an injured spouse allocation, mismatches in reported income, identity verification flags, or errors that prevent automated acceptance. In a staffing-limited environment, each of these situations may add days or weeks to the wait for a refund.

Separately, the law enacted last year known as the One Big Beautiful Bill includes provisions the administration says will increase many taxpayers’ refunds — some estimates suggest gains of more than 20% for certain filers. Those rule changes could change refund amounts and may create extra verification steps in some cases as systems and processes adjust to the new tax code.

What taxpayers should do to avoid or reduce delays

First, file electronically and elect direct deposit. E-filing with a deposit account is the fastest and most reliable way to receive a refund when a return can be processed automatically. Use careful review to avoid simple errors that trigger manual handling.

Track your refund daily with the IRS "Where's My Refund?" tool; it updates once every 24 hours and usually reflects status changes within a day of e-file acceptance. If your return was accepted and you see no status change after 21 days, check the tracking tool before calling. If there is no movement after four to five weeks, contact the IRS directly to open an inquiry.

Keep documentation handy in case the agency requests additional information: proof of income, Social Security numbers for dependents, and any forms tied to refundable credits. That can speed resolution if a manual review is required.

Finally, remember that a federal shutdown does not affect state tax agencies that remain funded locally. For example, Oklahoma taxpayers can check their state refund through the state’s portal rather than relying on federal systems.

While a partial shutdown can inject uncertainty, most straightforward electronic returns should still move through the system on time. Taxpayers with refundable credits or special circumstances should prepare for extra verification time and monitor refund status closely as the filing season unfolds.