UNH stock rebounds after sharp selloff as UnitedHealth sets 2026 outlook
UNH stock traded higher Wednesday after a steep one-day slide that followed UnitedHealth’s latest results and a cautious 2026 outlook that surprised investors looking for a cleaner rebound story. United Healthcare stock has been especially sensitive to any signal about medical costs and Medicare Advantage reimbursement, and this week’s updates put both issues back at the center of the trade.
As of late morning Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026 ET, shares were changing hands around the low $290s after closing Tuesday near the low $280s. The move follows a nearly 20 percent drop on Tuesday, Jan. 27, when the market reacted to softer revenue expectations for 2026 and a broader reset in managed-care sentiment.
UnitedHealth earnings: what the company reported for 2025 and Q4
In its UNH earnings release on Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026 ET, UnitedHealth reported full-year 2025 revenue of about $447.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $16.35. For the fourth quarter, revenue came in around $113.2 billion and adjusted earnings were about $2.11 per share, a figure that highlighted underlying profitability even as reported results were weighed down by one-time items.
The company said a large charge affected 2025 results, tied to a mix of final cyberattack-related costs, portfolio changes, and restructuring actions. That package, which included workforce reductions and other exits, helped explain why the quarter’s reported profitability looked markedly weaker than the adjusted view that many investors use to compare operating performance across periods.
Further specifics were not immediately available on how the restructuring actions will vary by business line over the course of 2026. Some specifics have not been publicly clarified about the timing and scope of additional portfolio moves beyond what has already been announced.
2026 guidance points to a rare revenue step-down
The headline for many traders was the company’s 2026 forecast: revenue projected to be greater than $439 billion, which implies a year-over-year decline of roughly 2 percent. UnitedHealth also projected adjusted earnings per share greater than $17.75, signaling that margin recovery is expected to do more of the work than top-line growth.
UnitedHealth described the setup as “right-sizing” across the enterprise, with fewer consumers served inside its health benefits segment and corresponding effects across parts of Optum. The company also provided a membership range expectation that suggested a smaller footprint than the most recent year-end level, a detail that fed the market’s concern that 2026 will be more about rebuilding economics than chasing expansion.
Why medical costs and Medicare Advantage rates can move UNH fast
Health insurers like UnitedHealth are essentially balancing two big forces: premiums and reimbursement on one side, and the cost of medical care on the other. The medical care ratio, a key metric for the group, measures how much premium revenue is being spent on medical claims and related costs. When utilization rises, pricing lags, or reimbursement tightens, the ratio can climb, squeezing margins even if revenue remains large.
That mechanism is why investors focused closely on cost-trend commentary and on government rate updates that influence Medicare Advantage economics. This week, a proposed Medicare Advantage payment update for 2027 that was essentially flat added another layer of uncertainty for the entire sector, amplifying the reaction to UnitedHealth’s guidance and contributing to a broader selloff in managed-care names.
Key terms have not been disclosed publicly regarding any potential timing for changes to the proposed Medicare Advantage update, or how final rates might differ from the proposal.
What this means for investors, members, and providers
For investors, the near-term question is whether the 2026 outlook represents a one-year reset before growth resumes, or the start of a longer stretch of slower expansion and higher medical-cost pressure. For Medicare Advantage members and employer plan customers, the stakes show up in plan design, benefits, and premium decisions as insurers reprice to keep coverage sustainable. Providers and health systems also feel the ripple effects through contracting negotiations and claims-payment dynamics when insurers push to manage utilization and total cost of care.
UnitedHealth is trying to land a delicate message: stabilize performance, simplify the organization, and keep investing in areas that can drive better outcomes and better economics over time. The market’s initial response suggests many participants want clearer evidence that medical cost trends are bending back down and that reimbursement headwinds will not intensify further.
In the weeks ahead, the next verifiable milestone will be the company’s next quarterly earnings update, which market calendars commonly peg for mid-to-late April 2026, though the company has not confirmed a specific date yet. That report should give investors the first real look at whether 2026 is tracking toward the margin improvement implied in guidance, and whether medical cost trends are moderating in a way that supports a steadier path for UNH.
