ASML stock swings as record bookings and a higher 2026 outlook collide with profit-taking
ASML stock saw sharp, two-way trading on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, as investors weighed blockbuster order intake against the realities of converting demand into shipments. By late morning ET, the U.S.-listed shares were down on the day near the low $1,400s after touching an intraday high around $1,553 and an intraday low around $1,416, underscoring how quickly sentiment can flip even after strong results.
The move came after ASML reported a record year financially, raised its 2026 sales outlook, and outlined a restructuring plan that includes job cuts. Further specifics were not immediately available about how the company’s record bookings will translate into quarter-by-quarter delivery timing across 2026.
Record orders put EUV demand back at the center
ASML reported 2025 total net sales of €32.7 billion and net income of €9.6 billion, capping a year it framed as being propelled by chipmakers building capacity for artificial intelligence workloads. The headline that grabbed markets most was bookings: fourth-quarter net bookings totaled €13.2 billion, including €7.4 billion tied to its most advanced extreme ultraviolet systems.
For 2026, ASML raised its expected total net sales range to €34 billion to €39 billion and projected a gross margin of 51% to 53%. The company also guided first-quarter 2026 net sales of €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion with the same gross margin range, signaling it expects momentum to carry into the new year rather than fade immediately after the order surge.
ASML also refreshed its capital return plans, saying it intends a total 2025 dividend of €7.50 per share, including an interim dividend of €1.60 payable on February 18, 2026. It additionally authorized a new share buyback program of up to €12 billion to be executed through December 31, 2028.
Key terms have not been disclosed publicly about how much of the 2026 outlook assumes a specific mix of EUV systems versus other tools and services in each quarter, a detail that can influence margins and the pace of revenue recognition.
How ASML turns backlog into revenue and why timing matters
ASML sits at a bottleneck in advanced chipmaking because lithography systems help “print” the tiny patterns that become transistors on silicon wafers. The most advanced chips require EUV lithography, where short-wavelength light enables far finer features than older techniques. These tools are complex, long-lead systems that take extensive manufacturing, shipping, installation, and qualification work at customer sites.
That mechanism is why markets obsess over bookings and backlog but still trade the stock on uncertainty. Bookings are a forward signal of demand, yet revenue depends on shipment schedules, customer readiness to take delivery, and successful installation and acceptance. Even small shifts in factory cadence, supply-chain constraints, or site readiness can push revenue between quarters without changing the underlying demand story.
The other side of the model is recurring “installed base” revenue from service, upgrades, and support. When chipmakers expand leading-edge capacity, it not only drives system sales but also builds a larger base of tools that require ongoing maintenance, parts, and software updates.
Restructuring, workforce impact, and the policy backdrop
Alongside the upbeat demand picture, ASML said it plans to streamline parts of its Technology and IT organizations, a restructuring that includes around 1,700 job cuts. For investors, that juxtaposition is part of the story: record profitability paired with efficiency moves that can improve execution, but also create internal disruption if not managed carefully.
The stakeholder impact is broad. Investors are weighing how quickly the AI-driven capex cycle converts into sustained deliveries and margins. Chipmakers depend on ASML’s delivery cadence because delays can ripple into their own product roadmaps and capacity plans. Employees and local communities feel the near-term consequences of job reductions, especially when the company is reporting strong profits. Suppliers across the semiconductor equipment ecosystem track ASML guidance closely because it often signals the temperature of the broader manufacturing buildout.
Policy and export licensing constraints remain a persistent consideration for the company’s addressable market and regional sales mix. While demand may be strong globally, shifts in where systems can be shipped and which configurations can be exported can influence the pace and composition of revenue.
What comes next for ASML stock
In the days ahead, attention will center on two concrete milestones: the interim dividend payment on February 18, 2026, and the company’s next quarterly results update, where investors will look for evidence that record bookings are converting into steady shipments and that the 2026 gross margin range is holding as product mix evolves.
