Ben Rice Dominates the American League
Ben Rice has rushed out of the gates in 2026. He has emerged as a dominant force in the American League this season.
Early-season numbers and context
Through the first three weeks, Rice has a .362/.500/.745 slash line. His wRC+ sits at 241, and he has reached 1.0 WAR.
Rice’s BABIP is an unsustainably high .500. That figure has inflated some traditional metrics early on.
StatCast adjustments and sustainable view
ZiPS uses StatCast inputs to estimate a more stable line. That model lowers his BABIP to .318.
After adjusting for BABIP, walks, homers, and strikeouts, ZiPS shows .277/.392/.629. That equates to a 1.021 OPS.
Even with those corrections, Rice projects as an elite offensive player. His adjusted numbers compare favorably to recent season leaders.
Hard contact and batted-ball profile
Rice already owned a 55.8% hard-hit rate in 2025, seventh-best in baseball. Early in 2026, that figure climbed to 70.0%.
Only Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks ahead of him in hard-hit rate so far. Rice’s average exit velocity is 96.7 mph, fourth in the majors.
In 2025, just 128 of 11,990 runs of 30 balls in play posted a hard-hit rate above 70%. A 17-player list achieved that mark at least once.
- Notable names on that list include Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto.
- Also present were Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, and Michael Harris II.
How pitchers have responded
Opposing pitchers have shown Rice more respect. They have thrown him fewer fastballs this year.
Pitchers are also offering fewer pitches in the strike zone versus last season. That indicates game-planning shifts.
Projection changes and roster impact
Rice ranked sixth among hitters in in-season forecast improvements during 2025. ZiPS had him at 128 wRC+ preseason.
His rest-of-season wRC+ forecast has climbed to 137 in the simpler in-season model. With StatCast, ZiPS raises that to 143.
That 143 rest-of-season projection is the seventh-best mark in ZiPS. Across the full model runs, Rice posted the second-largest wRC+ bump.
Long-range ZiPS projections
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | HR | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | .258 | .352 | .524 | 450 | 30 | 142 | 3.6 |
| 2028 | .257 | .352 | .515 | 452 | 29 | 139 | 3.4 |
| 2029 | .252 | .348 | .500 | 448 | 28 | 134 | 3.1 |
| 2030 | .248 | .345 | .479 | 436 | 25 | 128 | 2.7 |
| 2031 | .242 | .339 | .460 | 417 | 22 | 121 | 2.1 |
Effect on Yankees projections when Judge is limited
Before Rice’s surge, ZiPS simulations showed the Yankees had an above-average offense 57.0% of the time. Those sims assumed Aaron Judge played 300 or fewer plate appearances.
With Rice’s updated forecast, that probability rises to 67.1%. Reverting to his preseason projection cuts the rate back to 56.9%.
Most of the team’s sub-.500 simulated seasons fell in the Judge-limited group. Ninety-two percent of those losing seasons came when Judge saw fewer plate appearances.
Filmogaz.com coverage will continue to monitor Rice’s season. His power and contact quality suggest this is no brief hot streak.
