Top MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, April 13, 2026

Mo. Basuony

Published: April 13, 2026 8:36 PM ET

Filmogaz.com highlights a trio of Top MLB home run prop bets for Monday, April 13, 2026. These selections focus on matchups, recent splits, and ballpark tendencies.

Standout home run targets

Gunnar Henderson (+470) — Diamondbacks at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET

Ryne Nelson draws the start for Arizona. Nelson has a 42.4% career road fly-ball rate.

Henderson thrives against righties at Camden Yards. Last season he posted a .394 wOBA and a 43.6% hard-hit rate in that split.

He totaled 17 homers last year, with 10 of them at home. This season Henderson carries a .403 wOBA.

Brandon Lowe (+540) — Nationals at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Lowe has begun his Pirates stint with a .422 wOBA and five homers in 59 plate appearances. He does his best work versus right-handed pitching.

He faces Cade Cavalli, a right-hander who has a 2.51 ERA but a 5.14 SIERA early this year. Cavalli allowed six homers across five road starts last season.

Lowe’s small-sample numbers versus righties are extreme. He checks in with a .578 wOBA and a 43.5% hard-hit rate in that split, with all five homers coming there.

Will Smith (+470) — Mets at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Smith will see lefty David Peterson in the late game. Peterson has posted a 20.3% strikeout rate since 2024 began.

Peterson surrendered a 38.6% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters in 2025. He allowed just a 28.8% hard-hit rate to lefties that year.

Smith hit considerably better at home last season (.414 wOBA) than on the road (.363). He enters Monday with a .380 wOBA and two homers in 2026.

Odds, data sources and context

MLB odds are shown via Filmogaz.com Sportsbook and may shift before lock. All performance data come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Lines quoted are meant for bettors who track matchup edges and splits. Use current odds before placing any wagers.

Quick FAQ

What does +210 mean on a home run prop? A +210 line pays $210 profit on a $100 stake if the player homers.
What if the player doesn’t start? Most sportsbooks void the prop when the player gets no plate appearance. A pinch-hit at-bat usually keeps the bet active.
Can I parlay home run props? Yes. Parlays and Same Game Parlays are available on most books. All legs must win to cash.

Key factors to weigh on HR props

Recent home run frequency and raw power profile.
Opposing pitcher’s home run rate and underlying metrics.
Ballpark dimensions, wind, and game-time temperature.
Batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits and platoon splits.

Promos and disclosure

Filmogaz.com runs daily promotions tied to home run games, including a Daily Dingers Game. A prior promotion included a 50% Profit Boost Token for wagers on April 10, 2026.

The author is a Filmogaz.com employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests. The guidance here does not guarantee results. Use your own judgment when wagering.